Report 1637

With several Brazilian plants relatively “comfortable” in terms of sales after booking deals in previous weeks for shipments through July, packers stood firm this week in their push for higher prices. Trading sources quoted references to World Beef Report (WBR) of US$/t 5,900 CFR for forequarters in 8 cuts. One exporter added that “talks are already above US$/t 6,000,” while robbed forequarters were quoted around US$/t 4,950. Another processor said that as cattle prices are rising in Brazil, they opted to pull offers this week and wait before booking new shipments.

Trading for Hilton rump & loin cuts hovered between US$/t 16,500–17,000 FOB in Argentina over the past week, according to sources from both the industry and import markets.

Over the past two weeks, several kosher contracts were finalized with Argentina and Uruguay. Import sources reported prices for good-quality kosher forequarters from British crossbred steers in the US$/t 9,800–10,200 FOB range, while crossbreeds were quoted between US$/t 9,400–9,700. “Prices are hitting the limit of what’s negotiable,” a source said.

Chilean importers showed greater interest last week, booking shipments through the first half of July.

The WBR Mercosur Steer Index rose by 6 cents last week, reaching US$ 3.89 per kg carcass. The highlight was Brazil, where the average price for finished males in exporting states rose by 15 cents to US$ 3.55 per kg carcass, returning to early May levels. The appreciation in local cattle prices (+3%) and a 1.5% depreciation of the US dollar against the real contributed to the rebound.

June began with strong momentum for Brazil’s beef exports. The daily export volume rose 45.08% from the previous week, reaching 12.85 thousand tons per day. Prices remain firm.

Brazilian beef exports in May totaled 218,074 tons at an average price of US$ 5,201, according to data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex). Although the volume was slightly higher than in the same month last year, it fell nearly 10% compared to April.

The 10% tariff implemented by Washington on beef imported from its main suppliers, along with widespread uncertainty caused by Trump’s tariff policy, drastically reduced Brazilian beef exports to the United States in May, while boosting sales to other destinations, mainly China.

While Brazil’s chilled beef exports to the European Union are evolving at volumes similar to last year, shipments of frozen product are growing strongly, while processed beef exports are declining.

According to sector sources and data compiled by consultancy Scot, Brazil is seeing historic growth in live cattle exports in 2025. From January through April, the country shipped approximately 300,000 head — more than twice the volume of the first four months of 2024.

Brazil’s Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE) has approved without restrictions the merger between Marfrig and BRF. The operation involves the creation of a new holding company jointly controlled by both firms, which had already shared part of their ownership structure following Marfrig’s investments in BRF in recent years.

During the BRF PADS (Sustainable Development Action Plan) event, company executives expressed optimism about a near-term end to the avian flu-related disruptions in the market. CEO Miguel Gularte stated that the company has reinforced its biosecurity protocols and that the outbreak is currently under control.

Minerva raised R$1.715 billion through the subscription of 331.7 million shares as part of its capital increase, concluding the first phase of the process with approximately 85.75% of the available shares taken up, according to a Material Fact published last week. The operation was conducted at R$5.17 per share.

Fat cattle prices continued to show strength in Brazil’s main livestock regions. The @ of fat cattle in the average of the exporting states rose 3% over the past week, reaching R$ 296 (+R$/@ 8).

A delegation from Uruguay’s National Meat Institute (INAC), led by its president Gastón Scayola, attended a session of the Lower House’s Livestock Committee last week to discuss concerns about meatpacking plants currently out of operation. The meeting was requested by Colorado Party deputy Horacio De Brum.

Frigorífico Carrasco, part of Minerva group, completed its last slaughter run last Thursday and finished deboning tasks this Monday, after which it granted staff leave, according to FOICA union president Martín Cardozo in comments to WBR. Next week, workers at Tacuarembó-Marfrig are scheduled to begin their leave as well.

With packers last week offering 8 to 10 cents more to secure finished—or nearly finished—cattle for this week's slaughter, the fat cattle market continues to show strength. “Today there are virtually no top-quality cattle available. It seems there is less supply than the industry currently needs,” a market agent told World Beef Report (WBR). Another operator added that “demand is absorbing everything that appears,” highlighting the shortage of grassfed finished animals.

After two weeks with slaughter volumes below 50,000 head due to union conflicts and public holidays at the end of May, cattle processing regained momentum in the first week of June. According to data from INAC, 51,130 head were processed in the week ending June 7, up 13.8% from the previous week (+6,215 head) and well above the 44,801 head processed in the same week last year (+14%).

Sheep slaughter totaled 10,235 head in the first week of June, nearly doubling the volume from the previous week (5,334).

The controversial measure to allow bone-in beef from areas free of foot-and-mouth disease with vaccination into Patagonia—an area free of the disease without vaccination—has been postponed for at least two more months. Just a week before the initial 90-day suspension of SENASA Resolution 186/2025 was set to expire, the government decided to push back the implementation date again. According to La Nación, the delay aims to allow time for official responses from countries like Chile and EU members regarding whether the regulatory change might have commercial or sanitary consequences.

Argentina’s beef slaughter in May reached 1.118 million head, down 1.1% from April. Adjusted for working days, daily slaughter was about 53,200 head, a 10.5% drop compared to April's daily average of 59,500 head.

The drop in total slaughter this year stems mainly from a 15% year-over-year decline in cow slaughter, equating to roughly 173,400 fewer head. The steepest drop occurred in May, with 62,000 fewer cows processed compared to May 2024.

The average carcass weight in May was 232.3 kg, up 1.4% from April and 2.2% from May 2024. Year-to-date, average weight was 230.0 kg, up 1.1% from the same period in 2024.

Export cattle prices held steady. Crossbred British steers continued trading at Ar$ 5,000–5,100 per kg hook weight, while Brahman-influenced cattle remained at Ar$ 4,800–5,000.

With most plants already booked through the end of June, new cattle price lists released by the industry showed steep cuts. Packers are now offering US$ 3.50 per kg carcass for standard steers and US$ 3.20 for fat cows, for slaughter in the first week of July—a 30-cent drop from last week.

This week will present a face off between buyers and sellers for price records in every aspect of beef production. Last week turned in the highest prices every paid for cattle in almost all departments including cattle futures. Supplies of fed cattle won’t increase this week although some producers may chose to pull cattle forward.

Compared to the previous market test, imported beef prices were firm to higher last week.

The FAO meat price index averaged 124.6 points in May, up 1.6 points (1.3%) from the revised April value and 7.9 points (6.8%) above its level a year ago. The increase was driven by higher international prices for beef, sheep and pig meat, which more than offset the decline in poultry meat quotations.

The UK government will introduce a mandatory electronic identification (EID) system for cattle in England as part of its new "Livestock Information Service" platform. The goal is to enhance traceability, disease control, and trade efficiency. The new system will gradually replace the current visual ID system, with implementation expected to begin in late 2025.

Australian’s beef exports in May surged to their third highest volume level on record, reaching 129,478 tonnes. The number was the largest May tonnage ever seen, and it means that the three largest monthly shipment volumes on record have all been seen in the past 12 months. Only July and October last year have shown larger in-month trade volumes, with October’s record reaching 130,048t.

Economic data released on Monday cast further doubt on the strength of China’s economic recovery. May figures for the country’s trade balance and inflation came in below expectations, amid ongoing tensions with the United States—even during what appears to be a temporary trade truce.

Chinese farmers and small firms have increasingly bought market-ready pigs from larger breeders and fattened them in a bet on higher prices, but the government is cracking down on the speculative practice to slim down hogs and stabilise the market, Reuters said.