Report 1631

Chinese demand turned more cautious late last week. A regional broker said importers again tried to push Mercosur purchase prices lower—though selling pressure was also light. Several exporters are managing stocks to lock in as many deals as possible during the upcoming SIAL Shanghai show. Reported Uruguayan sales were US$/t 3,850 CFR for bone-in brisket, US$/t 4,000 for navel plate and US$/t 5,800 for shin & shank. Industry sources told World Beef Report (WBR) of early-week business at US$/t 6,300 for shin & shank, US$/t 5,500 for regular chuck & blade, US$/t 5,700 for Angus chuck & blade and US$/t 4,500 CFR for rib plate, steady to slightly softer than a week earlier.

Hilton rump & loin prices are testing their ceiling in Europe, although scarce supply keeps values firm. Argentine exporters are asking US$/t 18,100-18,200 FOB for new loads—though some business closed at US$/t 17,800, an importer said. Sources agree the market looks much like last week, but importers are applying strong downward pressure. “Deals are happening between US$ 17,600 and 18,200,” one operator said.

The US import market shows “two faces,” a trader said. Grass-fed or organic programs have resumed normal flow after the Trump tariffs: importers absorb the 10% duty or—thanks to China’s recent upswing—are willing to pay a bit more. Example: grass-fed knuckle from the region sold at US$/t 6,500-6,700 FOB outside quota (36.4% duty applies).

Chile’s import market is showing recovery as the backlog of unpaid contracts shrinks, an importer said.

“A Brazilian forequarter above US$/t 5,000 is unviable for most Middle Eastern countries,” a regional trader said. That explains the depressed trade flow: these destinations face lower oil prices and currency devaluations.

The sharp 7 % appreciation of the Argentine peso recorded the previous week was entirely wiped out this week, dragging down the export-steer reference expressed in US dollars.

The average export value for beef kept climbing in the fourth week of April, reaching its highest mark since early 2023, more than two years ago. Brazil exported 211,548 t of beef up to 26 April at an average FOB price of US$/t 5,021, the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) reported.

Representatives of the Brazilian Beef Exporters’ Association (Abiec) will visit six Chinese cities this year to showcase Brazilian beef and strengthen ties with direct buyers such as wholesalers, trade associations and local governments.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approval for JBS to list its shares in the United States was widely expected by the market, but it still lifted investor sentiment: JBS stock in São Paulo rose 6.38 percent following the confirmation, adding R$ 6.3 billion in market value. In 2025 so far, JBS shares have gained 29 percent, boosting the company’s capitalization by R$ 24.5 billion to about R$ 105 billion (roughly US$ 18.5 billion).

Brf—majority-owned by fellow Brazilian group Marfrig—told shareholders it will invest US$ 160 million to build a new processed-meat plant for poultry and beef in Jeddah, one of Saudi Arabia’s main cities.

Finished cattle prices in Brazil ended a five-week streak of gains—during which the finished male rose by R$/@ 26—and turned lower this week. A larger supply of animals at the end of the marketing season put buyers in a more comfortable position, Agrifatto said.

The shortage of steers and the high prices paid for slaughter cattle are pushing processors to work increasingly with heifers. So far this year (to 19 April) total cattle slaughter is up 3.5% year-on-year, with a modest rise in the number of steers and a similarly modest drop in cows. Heifer slaughter, however, has jumped a solid 18.5 %.

The Panamanian-flagged vessel Mawashi Express, one of the biggest livestock ships in the world, loaded 20 600 head of cattle in Montevideo bound for Turkey.

On 23 April the exporter Herbal Paradise filed the first request for a live-cattle shipment to Israel: 3 500 head—70 steers and 3 430 other cattle—at an average FOB price of US$ 1 242 per head.

Even though part of the industry shows little interest in buying grassfed cattle, focusing instead on grainfed cattle from feedlots —either their own or pre-purchased— the slaughter cattle market is still firm, with prices holding at the levels of recent weeks.

Production for a new window of the EU 481 grainfed quota sharply boosted cattle slaughter last week, especially for steers and heifers. INAC reported that 52,609 heads entered slaughter plants in the week to 26 April, the largest tally since the week ended 25 January, when slaughterhouses were actively working for the previous quota window.

The slaughter sheep market also remains firm, with the same price references as in previous weeks: around US$ 4.30 per kilo carcass weight for lambs and US$ 3.50-3.60 for mutton.

As WBR reported in its previous edition, exporting slaughterhouses have asked the government to suspend beef export duties, at least temporarily, the ABC chamber confirmed to La Nación. They also requested, among other measures, payment of the export rebates—1.25 % for frozen beef and 1.50 % for chilled beef—overdue for nine months. “Officials showed a willingness to listen. We laid out the situation and they said they are analyzing it. We hope for a positive response,” they said.

The scarcity of steers in Argentina has made it almost impossible to fulfil the Hilton quota with rump & loin cuts, so plants have begun using the tariff quota for lower-value round cuts.

Export cattle prices fell, likely reflecting processors’ difficulties. The best British-breed steers slipped to Ar$ 4 900-5 000 per kg dressed weight, while Zebu crosses moved down to Ar$ 4 700-4 900.

After foot-and-mouth vaccination (99.7 % coverage), Senacsa puts the herd at 13.034 million head, down 3.2 % year-on-year.

Slaughter cattle held firm: US$ 4.05/kg carcass for standard steers, US$ 3.80 for fat cows.

With trade tensions over tariff rates between the United States and China simmering, and despite the Trump administration’s recent suggestion that negotiations to settle the dispute are in the works, neither side has budged.

U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office last week that the current 145 percent tariff Americans pay on Chinese imports is likely to be “reduced significantly.” While he stressed the rate “will not be zero,” he expressed optimism about a possible trade deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

US consumer sentiment ebbed for a fourth straight month in April amid concerns about the economic impact of tariffs. The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said on Friday its Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 52.2 this month. While that was an improvement from a reading of 50.8 two weeks ago, the index was down sharply from 57.0 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecasted the final index reading unchanged at 50.8.

Fed cattle prices are continuing to rise. Gains past week are expected again this week as prices test the US$/cwt 220 area. This past week the sales in the south were at US$/cwt 212-213 with northern sales mainly at US$/cwt 215-218 live.

Compared to the last market test, US beef import prices were mostly moderately lower. Trading remained slow. Trade uncertainty over tariff rates continued to limit out-front sales.

In recent months, beef prices across Europe have escalated to unprecedented levels, driven by a confluence of factors affecting both supply and demand. In US$ terms, bullock prices reached almost 8,50, after starting the year at US$ 5,65, an increase of almost 50%. The strength of the € also contributes.

New Zealand’s beef exports in the first quarter of 2025 rose 1.3% year-on-year (YoY) to 134,240 metric tons, according to the latest data from Stats NZ. Stronger volumes to key markets including the United States, Canada, Korea, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom supported the quarterly gain. Exports to China and Japan pulled back, but total shipments still edged up by 1,781 mt.

Approvals have been granted for 17 additional Australian mutton, lamb and goatmeat export establishments to access the China market, Beef Central said. The outcome is a significant win for Australian sheep, lamb and goat processing and export businesses that will have benefits across the red meat supply chain, the Australian Meat Industry Council said.

The three Mercosur countries—Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay—are by far the dominant suppliers of frozen beef to China, yet their share slipped in the first quarter of 2025.

China’s chilled-beef imports in March held roughly steady with February’s level overall, but supplier shares shifted markedly. Volumes from the United States slumped 45% month on month to below 1,000 t—the lowest in more than a year—while arrivals from other origins climbed, led by Australia (+38% m/m), New Zealand (+89%) and Argentina (+38%).

Tariffs are beginning to affect U.S. meat exports, and China has made its largest cancellation of U.S. pork orders since 2020, according to Thursday data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The cancellation of 12,000 t of U.S. pork is the biggest since the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted supply chains, and total U.S. pork export sales last week fell to their lowest level since October.