Although there is still no consensus among the various players operating in the Chinese market, some have noted that over the past week there was a “clear trend” of price improvement, particularly for certain items such as Brazilian forequarter. A trader quoted references for the forequarter in 6 cuts at US$/t 5,350 CFR, US$/t 5,300 for 7 cuts, and US$/t 5,250 for 8 cuts; some prestigious-brand plants even achieved US$/t 5,400. There were also sales of shin at US$/t 5,250 CFR and flank 90 VL at US$ 4,300.

The climb in prices for Hilton rump & loin cuts has not stopped amid a shortage of slaughter-ready animals, now affecting not only Argentina but also Uruguay, where it is becoming difficult to source special grassfed steers.

Trade activity with several MENA countries was somewhat more limited than usual due to Ramadan, which ends on March 30.

Export market sources from Paraguay, Brazil, and Uruguay highlighted the firmness of the US beef import market. A Uruguayan industry source quoted deals for 90 CL forequarter at US$/t 5,300 FOB outside the quota, while in Paraguay they quoted US$/t 5,200 CFR for the same product. In Brazil, sources reported deals around US$/t 5,300-5,350 for a 95 CL outside the quota, along with sales of hindquarter cuts such as round.

A larger supply of Brazilian beef last week pushed import prices down in Chile. A broker quoted references of US$/t 5,800 CFR for the 19 cuts from Brazil, which led Paraguay to lower its prices to around US$/t 6,000.

Export and brokerage sources reported deals for livers with Russia from Uruguay last week in the range of US$/t 1,400-1,550 CFR, at US$ 2,300 for head meat, and US$ 3,100 for cheek meat.

The downward trend that dominated the past three weeks for the average value of the Mercosur steer has come to an end. The WBR Mercosur Steer Index recovered 1 cent to US$3.79 per kilo carcass weight, supported by higher quotes in Uruguay and the appreciation of Brazil’s exchange rate.

Brazil maintains an intense pace of beef exports. According to information from Secex, in February it totaled 190,458 tons, 10,000 tons more than in January, marking a record for the second month of the year.

The recovery in export prices to China during the second half of last year was not enough to sustain export volumes to that market, both for beef and byproducts.

Although they continue to run above last year’s levels, Brazilian exports of frozen beef to EU countries fell by nearly 50% in February compared to the previous month.

Domestic beef supply reached a record high at the beginning of 2025. According to Cepea, the total for January and February exceeded the volume for the same period in 2024 by 10% and was 38% higher than in 2023. Despite the increase in production, the average price for bone-in carcasses in the wholesale market of Greater São Paulo was 25% higher than at the beginning of last year, considering values adjusted by the IGP-DI.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva stated on Friday that the government and business leaders are concerned about rising food prices and are working to find a peaceful solution that does not harm producers. However, he noted that more “drastic” measures may be taken. “We are trying to find a solution. We do not want to fight with anyone. We want to find a peaceful solution,” the president said during the land reform program ceremony in Campo do Meio (MG), as reported by Money Times.

Agribusiness leaders called the federal government’s measures to reduce food prices “ineffective.” The plan includes exempting import tariffs on beef, coffee, sugar, corn, vegetable oils, sardines, and pasta. The second vice president of the Brazilian Agriculture and Livestock Confederation (CNA) and president of Farsul, Gedeão Silveira Pereira, considers the initiative “pointless.”

Brazilian slaughterhouses temporarily barred from exporting beef to China were notified and are taking corrective measures to meet the requirements of the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC), the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (Mapa) reported. According to Agro Estadão, among the problems detected by the Chinese government were traces of tick repellent in a shipment from one of the companies, the relabeling of a container of meat, and the use of unsuitable knives.

Cattle slaughter in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s main cattle-producing state, fell by 9.3% month-on-month and by 3.8% year-on-year in February, totaling 557.7 thousand head, according to Imea. This decrease occurred despite a continued high level of cow slaughter.

Mindhive Global, a New Zealand-based company specializing in artificial intelligence (AI) for hide grading, has signed an agreement with JBS Couros to assess the quality of production at its 21 units in Brazil. The New Zealand technology, capable of “certifying” the quality of JBS’s bovine hides, can process up to 360 hides per production line per hour, with an accuracy rate above 91%, Mindhive told Valor.

Cattle prices for slaughter moved downward again this week. However, on the B3 Futures Exchange, the trend was positive, with improvements in references for all positions, more pronounced for contracts from August through the end of the year.

This Monday, the representatives of the Executive Branch assumed their positions at the National Meat Institute (INAC), with Gastón Scayola as president and Leonardo Bove as vice president.

According to data from the National Meat Institute (INAC), as of February 28, 66% of the 2024/25 Hilton quota had been met, which is 10% less than at the same day in the previous cycle. With a total quota of about 5,700 tons, that means there are around 1,880 tons left to fulfill.

While the duty-free quota for third countries under the 481-quota continues to shrink, Uruguay has managed to solidify its leadership as the main supplier to the European Union. According to data from INAC’s board obtained by WBR, Uruguay has increased its beef shipments for this contingent by 20% so far in the 2024/25 cycle, even though the duty-free quota fell from 16,000 tons (2023/24) to 13,600 tons currently.

Regarding the 20,000-ton duty-free quota that Uruguay holds in the US (ending December 31), by the end of February 25% of that quota (about 5,000 tons) had been used. That compliance rate is 10% lower than in the same period of the previous year. However, much of the beef Uruguay is sending to the US is shipped outside the quota, paying a 26.4% tariff, taking advantage of the northern giant’s significant supply deficit.

Cattle slaughter in the first two months of the year went up. Nevertheless, the two categories contributing the most head to total slaughter (2–4-tooth steers and cull cows) went down. Over the last year and a half, the average slaughter age for steers has increased because the drop in 2–4-tooth steers was accompanied by a rise in slaughter of older animals. However, this will not become a long-term trend and will reverse relatively quickly.

During the ceremony for the inauguration of INAC’s top officials, the Minister of Livestock, Alfredo Fratti, said he expects that Sirsil will soon once again be authorized to export beef to China.

Frigorífico Schneck decided to close its cattle slaughter plant on March 31, when the special unemployment insurance period for the plant’s workforce ends, and from that point on, those employees will be laid off. The plant has about 100 employees.

The market for slaughter cattle remains on the upward path that has characterized recent weeks, pressured by a scarce supply and steady buyer demand.

“With these price levels, producers aren’t speculating—whatever’s ready is sold; the issue is that there’s very little cattle ready,” an intermediary commented yesterday afternoon. All operators consulted agreed that supply is truly limited and is the main factor underpinning the market’s strength.

Cattle slaughter continues to contract. In the week ending March 8, 38,312 head were processed, 5,377 fewer (-12%) than the previous week and 16,000 fewer than the peak four weeks ago.

The supply of sheep for slaughter remains very scarce. Despite reduced demand due to several plants processing sheep going offline, prices continue climbing. “They are paying the prices listed by consignors or a few cents more,” noted one intermediary. Heavy lambs bring US$4.30–4.35 per kilo carcass weight, while mutton hover around US$3.60 per kilo.

As had happened in January, slaughter in February fell both month-on-month and year-on-year, registering the lowest level in three years —since February 2022— according to official data published by the Secretariat of Agriculture. In the second month of 2025, 1.025 million head of cattle were processed, a 10.5% drop compared to January (which had already fallen 8.1% from December), and 2.8% below February 2024.

Looking at the first two months of the year, total slaughter amounted to 2.171 million head, down 2.2% from the same period last year, mainly due to the decrease in cows (especially those with eight or more teeth) and young steers (four teeth).

As the rains ended, steer prices slipped slightly in some areas and remained unchanged in others. Overall, crossbred British steers range around Ar$4,900–5,100 per kilo (carcass weight), while Zebu crosses remain between Ar$4,900 and Ar$5,000 per kilo.

The export meatpacking industry maintained a strong slaughter pace in February, with 215,302 head processed and reaching 52,201 tons of beef produced, according to information from the National Animal Health and Quality Service (Senacsa).

Paraguayan meatpacking plants intensified their export pace in February, driven by strong demand from the United States, which ranked as the second main destination for the month.

Negotiations in the cattle market moved downward over the past week. The industry managed to secure cattle at list prices of US$3.50 for regular males and US$3.30 for fat cows.

Canada is the newest country added to the list of pork exporters facing tariffs imposed by China. In this case, they amount to 25%, following the Canadian government’s decision last October to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum.

U.S. President Donald Trump stated that tariffs on certain Canadian and Mexican products slated for April 2 “could go up,” and he made no comment as to whether the United States would face a recession in 2025.

US agricultural producers’ confidence improved in February, according to a monthly survey by Purdue University and the CME Group. The index known as the Ag Economy Barometer rose by 11 points compared to the previous month, reaching 152. The Current Conditions Index gained 28 points to 137, while the Future Expectations Index climbed 3 points to 159.

The US$/cwt 7 gains in the futures market was not matched by live prices but gains in cash prices last week were mainly strong in the northern plains. Cattle owners will attempt to follow through this week and asking prices will be higher. Attention will focus on the size of this week’s slaughter and the direction and interest in beef from the retailers, The AG Center reported.

Compared to the last market test, US beef import prices were moderately to sharply higher. Trading was moderate. Imported supplies from Australia and New Zealand were light.

“Even though live cattle imports are moving at a fast pace, slaughter cattle prices keep rising,” a Turkish media reported, citing the weekly reference prices from the Cattle Breeders’ Association.

Hungarian veterinary authorities have reported an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in a dairy cattle farm located in the municipality of Kisbajcs, in the Györ district of northern Hungary, near the Slovakian border.

The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) averaged 127.1 points in February 2025, up 2.0 points (1.6 percent) from its revised January level. While the meat price index remained stable, all other price indices rose, with the most significant increases recorded for sugar, dairy and vegetable oils. The overall index was 9.7 points (8.2 percent) higher than its corresponding level one year ago; however, it remained 33.1 points (20.7 percent) below the peak reached in March 2022.

Australian beef exports are off to a cracking pace in 2025, with both January and February shipments unusually large. In fact, the accumulated calendar year-to-date shipments are record high, at more than 198,000 tons. Even the frantic herd liquidation years of 2019-20, and 2014-2015 did not come close to that number for January-February trade, with exports not exceeding 173,000t in any of those years, Beef Central reported.

Australia’s national cattle herd and sheep flock are both expected to decline slightly as record production, slaughter and exports meet demand, according to Meat & Livestock Australia’s (MLA) 2025 Cattle and Sheep Industry Projections.

According to information released by OIG+X, there are 390 beef establishments (cold storage facilities and processing plants), 364 pork, and 139 poultry plants that are on the verge of losing their validity status with Chinese Customs (the CIFER system). The permit with the GACC expires on March 16. Once that registration expires, US plants will not be able to ship their products to Chinese ports.

The USDA office in Beijing maintains the expectation of growing beef imports in 2025, driven by the forecast of the decline in domestic beef and pork production.