The USDA office in Beijing maintains the expectation of growing beef imports in 2025, driven by the forecast of the decline in domestic beef and pork production.
Domestic beef production in 2025 is projected to decline marginally from 7.79 million tons in 2024 to 7.74 million tons. Demand for domestic beef is flat and the inventory of finished cattle will decline. The rate of decline in beef production will be moderate as forecasts of culling cattle and cow will to continue in 2025. Beef cattle and cows that have not yet reached slaughter weight may still be slaughtered due to low beef cattle prices. As cattle prices continue to decline, farmers have experienced significant losses in recent years. Many producers are burdened with debt, and some are financially overwhelmed and must sell their beef cattle to exit the market. The slaughter of cattle for cash will likely persist for some time.
The USDA in Beijing forecasts beef imports in 2025 to grow marginally due to domestic production constraints and increased demand for imported cuts. “Growth will be moderated by economic headwinds and strong volumes of imported beef in previous years”, it added. In 2024 China imported 3.743 million tons of beef in 2024 and the forecast is of a 2% increase to 3.825 million tons, a record.
As China’s economy continues to slow and consumer purchasing power declines, consumption downgrading is becoming more apparent. Consumers have become more price-sensitive, leading to the increasing popularity of lower-priced South American beef in the market. Particularly in the mid-to-low-end market, beef from South American countries such as Brazil and Argentina, with its relatively lower price, is gradually replacing the market share of higher-priced beef from other countries. In addition, despite the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, South American beef remains competitively priced. Therefore, demand for South American beef in China is expected to further grow in 2025.
USDA-Beijing maintains its forecast on growing beef consumption in 2025 to 11.547 million tons, with the growth rate slower than in previous years, just 32 thousand tons more than in 2024. Per capita beef consumption in China still has growth potential. The rising demand for prepared foods will drive the demand for low-end beef. However, economic uncertainty and cautious consumer spending will constrain the growth rate of beef consumption.
