Expectations consolidate for a record number of calves this year

The severe challenges faced by the meatpacking industry in 2019/20 due to a very high outflow of live calves in the two preceding years do not appear likely to repeat over the next two years. Although live cattle exports in 2024/25 were the second highest on record, with 387,000 head, there were relatively few calves from the 2024 generation among them. The commercial flow was predominantly made up of breeding females—mainly heifers—from both beef and dairy breeds.

In the first half of 2025, based on export request data reported by Customs, around 50,000 calves were shipped: 48,000 males and 2,000 females. This figure is less than half of the 120,000 shipped during the first half of 2024.

All indicates that the 2024 calf crop was exceptionally large, with a pregnancy rate at historical highs (according to last year’s INIA Gestation Workshop), suggesting that births comfortably exceeded 3 million head.

Of the calves born last spring, those exported live in the first semester are not included in the livestock declaration as of June 30. Since the number exported was relatively small, only a minor portion is deducted from the total.

Therefore, the conditions are in place for the number of calves recorded as of June 30 to exceed 3.1 million, reaching 3.15 million. Of these animals, those not exported in the second half of the year will begin to be available for slaughter —especially if feedlots continue operating at current levels— starting in the second half of 2026.