Embrapa warned that the El Niño event forecast for 2026/27 will have different impacts on Brazilian livestock production, ranging from water and forage shortages to problems caused by excessive moisture. The agency recommended anticipating feed requirements and adjusting stocking rates to reduce production risks.
In the Central-West, Mato Grosso, Goiás and the Federal District face the risk of late or irregular rainfall, dry spells and high temperatures. The most critical period is expected between November 2026 and January 2027, when pastures should be in full development. Embrapa recommends adjusting stocking rates to pasture carrying capacity, maintaining forage reserves and ensuring adequate water and shade. Southern Mato Grosso do Sul, however, could receive above-average rainfall.
In the north, El Niño could prolong the dry season, lower river levels and accelerate the deterioration of pasture quality. In the northeast, particularly in the semi-arid region, the main concern is water availability in early 2027. The agency recommends strengthening feed reserves and supplementation to prevent cattle from losing body condition.
The southeast faces a more mixed outlook, with excessive rainfall possible in some areas and water deficits in others. High temperatures also pose a risk to dairy production in Minas Gerais and São Paulo due to heat stress. In the south, heavy rainfall forecast particularly between September and December could cause waterlogging, erosion, soil compaction and pasture deterioration.
Embrapa stressed that the impacts will depend on each farm’s location and production system. Its main recommendation is “not to wait” until drought or excessive rainfall affects production before acting, but to prepare feed reserves, check water availability and adjust herd management in advance.
Source: Beef Point
