China’s beef market is beginning to regain momentum following the holiday break, although orders remain within normal levels for now. A regional operator reported new transactions for several cuts, with no signs of a significant acceleration in demand.

The lack of commercial agreements is creating uncertainty over the start of the next production cycle for Israel. Some teams may travel without prices having been agreed, while Paraguayan exporters warn that another increase in cattle prices would squeeze processing margins.

A large share of Mercosur exporters remains cautious ahead of the SIAL trade show in Paris, which begins next Saturday and runs through Wednesday. Face-to-face negotiations could provide new price indications for a market facing downward pressure on chilled beef.

The US beef market showed signs of stabilizing over the past week following the price adjustments recorded since September.

Argentine market sources reported prices of US$ 6,200/t CFR for in-quota 90 VL, but virtually no business due to intense competition with Brazil in this segment. A trader currently in Florida described commercial activity in the state as subdued. “Activity is very weak. Tourism is down, consumption is down, fuel and interest rates are very high—no change,” he told WBR.

Chile’s beef market remains quiet, with Brazilian 19-20 cut sets trading at around US$ 7,400-7,500/t. A Paraguayan exporter confirmed retail-segment sales to WBR at US$ 8,500/t. The transaction provides a price indication above the levels reported by other operators for Paraguayan beef.

A regional operator reported sales of Uruguayan beef to Brazil concluded last week.

A Uruguayan exporter reported Russian enquiries to WBR at US$ 2,000/t FOB for liver, US$ 4,650/t FOB for tongue and US$ 2,100/t FOB for heart. These were bids received, with no confirmed transactions.

The revised Mercosur steer price index exceeded US$ 5.00/kg carcass weight for the first time on record, driven mainly by the rapidly strengthening Brazilian market, where the consolidation of the herd rebuilding phase is reducing finished cattle supplies. Prices also increased in the other three countries in the region.

Global beef exports are forecast to decline by 0.6% in 2027 to 13.89 million tons carcass weight equivalent, according to the USDA’s latest projections. Lower shipments from Brazil, Australia, the United States, Argentina and the European Union would more than offset the growth forecast for India, Uruguay, Mexico, Canada and Paraguay.

Brazilian beef exports are forecast to decline by 1.2% in 2027 to 4.10 million tons carcass weight equivalent, according to the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) initial projections for next year.

Between January and September 2026, 21.0 million cattle were slaughtered at federally inspected plants (SIF), down 7.5% from a year earlier. SIF plants are authorized to export.

Reduced availability of females for slaughter continues to limit the number of cattle reaching meatpacking plants in Mato Grosso, the state with Brazil’s largest cattle herd.

The resumption of purchases for China’s 2027 quota and the additional US import quota are driving finished cattle prices higher in Brazil. Tighter cattle supplies associated with the cattle cycle are also contributing to market strength.

MFG Agropecuária, a subsidiary of the MBRF group, is seeking to restore the number of cattle finished in its feedlots by increasing turnover and expanding capacity. The company expects volume to rise from 255,000-265,000 head this year to approximately 306,000 in 2027.

Embrapa warned that the El Niño event forecast for 2026/27 will have different impacts on Brazilian livestock production, ranging from water and forage shortages to problems caused by excessive moisture. The agency recommended anticipating feed requirements and adjusting stocking rates to reduce production risks.

The Brazilian government said progress has been made in negotiations with the European Union to resolve the sanitary restrictions affecting meat exports since September 3. However, no date has yet been set for certification to resume.

Finished cattle prices accelerated their upward trend over the past week. This was the sixth consecutive week of recovery in Brazilian real terms, with prices gaining a cumulative 6.9% and reaching record nominal levels.

Uruguay exported 6,501,084 kg of sheepmeat on a shipped-weight basis during the first nine months of 2026, down 18% from the same period last year, according to the Uruguayan Wool Secretariat (SUL).

The US$ 6/kg level for steers quickly returned to the finished cattle market. Not all plants accept it, but an increasing number of transactions are being concluded at this price, which several producers had been waiting for before selling.

The return to activity of San Jacinto, Breeders & Packers and Pulsa lifted weekly cattle slaughter to its highest level in five weeks.

INAC reported that 9,907 sheep were slaughtered in the week ended October 10, compared with just 1,152 head the previous week. This was still 42% below the 17,093 head processed in the same week of 2025. Lambs totaled 6,907 head, accounting for 70% of total slaughter.

Argentina is making rapid progress in filling both the 2026/27 Hilton quota and the special quota granted by the United States for this year.

September cattle slaughter data confirmed the contraction in meatpacking industry activity this year, with year-on-year declines recorded for the sixth consecutive month.

Rioplatense processed the largest number of cattle in September. Official data show that it slaughtered 35,827 head, well ahead of Coto’s Buenos Aires plant, which ranked second with 24,618 head.

All major slaughter categories declined year-on-year.

The average cattle carcass weight reached 247 kg in September, setting another record, as it has every month without interruption since April. Although the September figure was only 0.6% higher than in the previous month, it was up 6.5% year-on-year.

Export steer prices remain stable. British-breed crossbred steers with better beef characteristics are trading at around Ar$ 7,900-8,100/kg carcass weight, while Zebu-cross steers remain at Ar$ 7,600-7,900/kg.

Heavy rainfall has disrupted cattle transport and slaughter scheduling in a market with firm prices and short bookings. Transactions including premiums are taking place well above meatpackers’ listed prices.

Brazil accounted for almost two out of every three kilograms of beef imported by Chile in the 12 months through September, comfortably surpassing Paraguay, which had been the Chilean market’s leading foreign supplier until 2024.

The sustained increase in US cattle carcass weights is expected to lose momentum toward the end of this year and come to a halt in 2027, according to a forecast by The AG Center. Processing difficulties caused by excessively heavy cattle could lead meatpackers to increase the discounts applied under their pricing systems.

US beef imports totaled 519.9 million pounds carcass weight equivalent in August, up 26% year-on-year, according to USDA data. Volume declined by 4% from July, but imports in the first eight months of the year increased by 14.3%.

The US poultry company formed a special committee to evaluate a proposal from its controlling shareholder, JBS, to acquire the shares it does not already own. The transaction is subject to an independent review and no definitive agreement has yet been reached, according to Reuters.

Late-week trading in the US northern states saw live cattle prices improve from an earlier US$/cwt 218 to US$/cwt 220–223. Dressed prices were mainly US$/cwt 345, with some transactions reaching US$/cwt 350. Light trade in Texas was reported at US$/cwt 226, while no sales were confirmed in Kansas, where sellers passed on bids at the same level. Bids remained available on Saturday, but no transactions were reported, The AG Center said.

The USDA weekly report indicated that US imported beef prices declined sharply in most cases, amid light trading activity.

The additional 55% tariff imposed by China after Australia filled its 205,000-ton quota in June is causing beef to accumulate in cold storage facilities. According to Beef Central, at least two plants—and possibly three—have been forced to cancel slaughter days due to a lack of space, with frozen Wagyu production particularly affected.

China suspended beef imports from 28 establishments in Belarus from Thursday, October 8, according to an update to GACC’s plant approvals reported by OIG+X. At the time of writing, the reason for the measure had not been publicly confirmed.

China’s wholesale beef price declined following the National Day holiday, in a market that is still attempting to return to normal trading conditions.