Chinese beef demand moderated over the past week, with importers pointing to lower wholesale beef prices and showing reluctance to accept exporters’ offers for product arriving both this year and next.

Some European importers are beginning to resist paying more than US$ 23,000 per ton for Argentine Hilton rump & loin cut sets.

Deals from Argentina were reported at US$ 22,500-22,800 per ton FOB over the past week, indicating that the rally of recent weeks may have reached a ceiling despite relatively limited supplies. Uruguayan product is quoted at around US$ 22,000 per ton FOB.

An Argentine trader described the U.S. market as “extremely depressed,” with very limited activity, while China is currently attracting greater interest among exporters. For Argentina, the exhaustion of its quota, combined with low prices, has virtually ruled out new business with the United States.

A regional trader noted that Uruguayan processors offered more sheepmeat for sale over the past week.

Two Chilean importers agreed that the market remains firm, although prices vary widely and some levels have yet to be accepted.

Brazil will leave more than 2,000 tons of its 2026/27 Hilton quota unused out of a total allocation of 10,000 tons due to the European suspension of Brazilian beef, resulting in losses exceeding US$ 22 million.

The weakness of the Brazilian currency pushed down the regional average finished cattle price. The WBR Mercosur Steer Index fell 3 cents over the week to US$ 4.84 per kg carcass weight.

The average value of Brazilian beef exports is consolidating above the levels recorded from late July through the first half of September.

Minerva Foods, South America’s largest beef exporter, acquired a stake in Grão Direto, a Brazilian agfintech specializing in digital grain trading.

Weaker domestic beef demand in the final days of the month was insufficient to reverse the upward trend in finished cattle prices.

However, the weakness of the Brazilian real prevented this improvement from being reflected in U.S. dollar terms. The Brazilian currency lost almost 2% against the U.S. dollar, partly due to the strengthening of the latter and partly because of expectations of a cut in Brazil’s Selic interest rate. The presidential election next Sunday is adding uncertainty, with all polls showing a virtual tie between President Lula and opposition candidate Flavio Bolsonaro.

Five shipping companies operating at the Port of Montevideo conveyed to President Yamandú Orsi’s administration their “deep concern” over the dispute between Katoen Natie, the majority shareholder in Terminal Cuenca del Plata (TCP), and the workers’ union.

Live cattle exports declined in August both month-on-month and year-on-year. According to data from the National Meat Institute (INAC), Uruguay exported 18,000 live cattle in August, 16,000 fewer than in July and 12,000 below the same month of 2025.

Companies with inactive beef processing plants have begun setting dates to resume slaughter operations. Under current market conditions, demand appears likely to increase before cattle supplies do.

Trading in the finished cattle market remains very limited due to extremely tight supplies, bringing the downward price trend to an end and leading to deals being concluded at higher levels.

Despite a moderate increase, cattle slaughter remained below 30,000 head for the second consecutive week. INAC reported that 28,969 cattle were processed in the week ended September 26, up 1,210 head (+4%) from the previous one but 10,765 fewer than in the same period last year.

Sheep slaughter remained close to the previous week’s level. INAC reported that 11,121 sheep were processed in the week ended September 26, only 174 more than in the previous period and 8% fewer than in the same week last year. Lambs totaled 7,559 head, accounting for 68% of the total.

Export beef processor Ecocarnes, formerly Cocarsa and ranked 15th among Argentine plants by slaughter, is facing a financial crisis that industry sources say has brought it to the verge of filing for court-supervised debt restructuring. The problems at the plant, located in San Fernando in Buenos Aires province, had apparently been building for some time.

According to U.S. Customs data, as of September 28 Argentina had filled 17,434 tons of its traditional 20,000-ton U.S. beef quota, equivalent to 87.2% of the total.

According to a report by industry chamber CICCRA, Argentina produced 1.944 million tons of beef in bone-in carcass equivalent during the first eight months of the year, down 6.8% year-on-year, or almost 141,000 tons.

Export steer prices remained stable. Higher-quality British-breed crossbred steers were quoted at around Ar$ 7,900-8,100 per kg carcass weight, while Bos indicus crossbred steers remained at Ar$ 7,600-7,900.

Paraguayan President Santiago Peña called for his country to be granted an exclusive quota for beef exports to the United States. In an interview with Bloomberg Television, he said Paraguayan shipments were increasing but noted that they currently compete under the “other countries” quota, in which Brazil accounts for a large share of the volume due to its greater scale.

The market began the week with a slight increase in the supply of cattle for slaughter following Monday’s holiday, although prices remain mostly stable and close to the levels recorded seven days earlier.

The U.S. meat industry cautiously welcomed progress in the latest trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, which could pave the way for lower tariffs and the resolution of sanitary and technical barriers limiting U.S. beef and pork access to China.

The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) called on the Trump administration to reverse plans to temporarily allow an additional 300,000 metric tons of beef imports. The organization said the measure has done little to reduce ground beef prices for consumers, while cattle prices have weakened significantly.

Immigration enforcement raids in southwestern Kansas affected meat supply-chain workers last week and could put upward pressure on beef prices at a time when consumers are already facing high costs.

A small group of officials is discussing reducing the 300,000-ton quota authorized in late August amid Republican concerns over beef prices and the midterm elections, although the proposal faces resistance within the administration.

The US fed cattle market ended last week with mixed regional signals, as Northern prices came under pressure while Southern trade developed at firmer levels. A sharp reduction in slaughter limited beef production and could provide support to wholesale beef prices.

Limited availability from Australia and New Zealand offset some of the pressure from weaker US domestic values. South American trade remained active.

Eric Thévenard, head of audits at the EU’s health authority, told the European Parliament’s Agriculture Committee that Brazil is unlikely to resume beef exports to the bloc before late 2028.

Türkiye authorized the import of 480,000 males for fattening in 2027, 20,000 head fewer than the 500,000-head quota established for 2026. This represents a year-on-year reduction of 4%.

The latest Eurobarometer reinforces public support for the Common Agricultural Policy and shows that European origin is becoming an increasingly important purchasing criterion, with significant implications for exporters from third countries seeking access to the EU market.

Australian beef production is forecast to decline moderately in 2027 after setting a record for the third consecutive year in 2026, according to the USDA office in Canberra.

The traditional rule that a female share above 47% of total slaughter signals a herd liquidation phase has become less reliable in Australia, according to the USDA office in Canberra.

Chinese imports of Brazilian beef reached 100% of the volume established for 2026 under the safeguard mechanism on September 29, according to the China International Trade Single Window.

Beef volumes shipped from Brazil to China in August continued to account for nearly two-thirds of total imports.

China’s imports of Australian beef fell from July onward after the 206,000-ton duty-free quota was filled in June.

With the beef that arrived in China in August, Brazil exceeded the 1.106-million-ton quota allocated to the South American country by Beijing for 2026. All volumes entering from the third day after the quota is filled are subject to the additional tariff. In Brazil’s case, the applicable rate increases from 12% to 67%.

India’s beef production is forecast to increase 2% in 2027 to 5 million tons carcass weight equivalent, according to the USDA office in New Delhi.

Japan’s beef production is forecast to fall 3% in 2027 to 475,000 tons carcass weight equivalent due to a shrinking herd and the continued decline in the number of breeding farms, according to the USDA office in Tokyo.

SIMON QUILTY CONFERENCE

Australian analyst Simon Quilty delivered two presentations in Uruguay over the past week, outlining his outlook for the international beef market not only over the medium term, but also for the next ten years.