Brazilian beef exports to China are expected to reach around 900,000 tons in 2026, a decline of 748,000 tons from the record 1.68 million tons registered last year, according to Abiec president Roberto Perosa. The reduction could result in a revenue loss of up to US$ 4.5 billion for the meatpacking industry.
The estimate is based on the volume that would no longer be exported and an average price of US$ 6,100 per ton during the first half of the year. It does not take into account revenue from selling the product to other destinations.
Through June, Brazil had shipped 794,600 tons to the Chinese market. Although Brazil’s quota was set at 1.106 million tons, part of the allocation was filled by cargoes shipped in late 2025 and cleared through Chinese customs this year. The estimate also excludes shipments that will begin to be recorded this year but will count toward the 2027 quota.
Meatpackers have already suspended production and shipments to China, although the Chinese government has not yet published the final quota utilization figures. Production for that market is expected to resume in the final quarter, with cargoes shipped from mid-November onward to arrive at Chinese ports in 2027.
Perosa said all Abiec member companies have adopted adjustment measures, including collective vacations, layoffs, reduced working hours and lower slaughter. The association projects a decline of around 10% in Brazil’s total beef exports in 2026 and warns that other markets will grow, but will not be able to fully offset the loss of Chinese demand.
Source: Globo Rural
