The beef export market to China confirmed the improvement in buying interest that had begun to emerge last week. The perception that Brazilian product will soon stop arriving revived demand in the spot market, and this is now beginning to feed through, albeit only partially so far, into export business.

The increase in Brazilian supply to the US market is putting downward pressure on prices. Although the market appeared more stable over the past week, supported by higher domestic lean beef prices, downward pressure remains.

The chilled beef market is seeing limited business, with buyers exerting downward pressure on prices.

The escalation of the war in the Middle East is complicating trade and increasing freight costs, but it has not eliminated opportunities to close business with the region for either sheepmeat or beef.

The end of production for China has led Brazilian exporters to increase supply to other markets, particularly the United States and Chile.

In the Chilean market, a Paraguayan exporter told WBR that it would stop offering product until Brazil resumes production for China. “Chile is where Brazil is being most aggressive; it is leaving us unable to compete,” the source said.

The average value of slaughter cattle in the region increased for the second consecutive week. The WBR Mercosur Steer Index rose by 5 cents to US$ 4.75 per kilo carcass weight.

In Brazil, the downward trend that had prevailed in previous weeks in local currency was reversed. In US dollar terms, the boi gordo price in the main cattle-producing states increased by 3 cents over the week to US$ 4.17 per kilo carcass weight.

Brazilian beef exports slowed significantly in the third week of July, with the daily shipment pace falling to 7,145 tons, the lowest since the third week of January 2025.

The United States excluded beef from the additional 25% tariff that it will begin applying on July 22 to a broad list of products imported from Brazil. The exemption avoids another blow to the world’s leading beef exporter and reflects the supply needs of the US market, which is going through a period of lower production and high domestic prices.

Brazil’s meatpacking industry believes there is a high probability that beef exports to the European Union will be interrupted from September due to the lack of a system capable of certifying that antimicrobials were not used throughout the animals’ entire life cycle.

Brazilian beef exports to China are expected to reach around 900,000 tons in 2026, a decline of 748,000 tons from the record 1.68 million tons registered last year, according to Abiec president Roberto Perosa. The reduction could result in a revenue loss of up to US$ 4.5 billion for the meatpacking industry.

Prima Foods acquired the plant operated by Frialto in Rondônia in a transaction that is still awaiting approval from Brazil’s competition authority.

Banco Safra revised its projections for Brazil’s leading animal protein companies, cut its target prices for JBS, MBRF and Minerva Foods, and downgraded JBS and MBRF to neutral. Minerva was the only company to retain a buy recommendation despite the reduction in its valuation.

The downward trend in boi gordo prices seen over the previous four weeks came to an end last week, with the market rising in some states and remaining stable in others.

The average boi gordo price in Brazil’s main cattle-producing states increased by R$ 2.6 over the week to R$ 318.4 per arroba, based on state references from consultancy Scot, excluding the Funrural tax and with payment in 30 days. Prices increased in states such as São Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais and Rondônia, while they remained stable in others including Mato Grosso, Goiás and Rio Grande do Sul.

The value generated from the sale of all products obtained from a Type Steer 2.0 after industrial processing fell by 3.1% in June to US$ 2,049 per head, moving away from the nominal record reached in May. Even so, it was the second-highest value in the series, which began in January 2022.

Official sources confirmed to World Beef Report (WBR) that Uruguay is currently engaged in negotiations related to the management of its beef export quota with China and the allocation of the new Mercosur-European Union beef quota with Brazil

Heavy rainfall across several regions of the country, particularly in the north and east, complicated the loading of many lots that had already been sold. This led to shipment rescheduling and prompted some buyers to pay a few additional cents for readily available cattle.

INAC reported that 42,957 cattle were slaughtered in the week ending July 18, the lowest total in five weeks and 3,754 head fewer than in the previous week, most likely due to the impact of the non-working public holiday on Saturday, July 18.

Conditions in the slaughter sheep market remain unchanged, with reference prices continuing their persistent upward trend. Lambs are trading at around US$ 6.20 per kilo carcass weight, while adult sheep are priced at US$ 5.15-5.25.

Exports of fresh and frozen beef reached 63,869 tons product weight in June, up 7.1% from May, 1.6% from June 2025 and the highest monthly volume so far in 2026.

In the first half of 2026, Argentine beef exports reached 336,227 tons product weight, worth US$ 2.288 billion. These figures were 7.1% higher in volume and 43.3% higher in value than in the same period of 2025.

Export volumes to China recovered in June and reached their second-highest monthly level of the year, behind March. Argentina shipped 16,066 tons of bone-in beef and bones from deboning, worth US$ 48.3 million, as well as 22,300 tons of boneless beef, worth around US$ 135 million.

Beef exports to the United States reached a record of close to 12,400 tons in June, consolidating the country as Argentina’s second-largest destination. This came despite contrasting trends between chilled beef shipments, which were the lowest of the year, and frozen beef shipments, which reached their highest level.

In June, Argentina shipped 2,155 tons of chilled kosher beef and 2,654 tons of frozen beef to Israel, making it the third-largest destination for Argentine beef.

Exports of chilled cuts to Germany in particular and to the European Union as a whole fell significantly in both volume and average value, partly due to the closure of the quarterly 481 quota window.

On July 16, China’s customs authority (GACC) announced the approval of three Argentine meatpacking plants to export to that market, as well as one Pakistani plant.

Export steer prices increased, although the industry said the rise was driven less by market fundamentals than by several days of rainfall and the influence of the Palermo Rural Exhibition, the region’s largest livestock show.

Higher cattle prices once again pressured the Paraguayan meatpacking industry’s Gross Industrial Margin in June.

Paraguay’s export finished cattle market remains firm after attempts by some meatpacking plants to lower prices failed to gain acceptance among producers.

The reduced availability of finished cattle and growing competition among processors supports market references and generating new business above the base price.

Beef cow slaughter in the United States fell 15.5% year on year in the first half of 2026 and is on track to reach its lowest level on record, according to Kenny Burdine of the University of Kentucky in an article published by Beef Magazine.

Mexico’s main cattle producer organizations have intensified efforts to persuade the United States to reopen live cattle imports, which have been suspended since May following the detection of New World screwworm.

The United States launched a safeguard investigation into lamb imports following calls from domestic producers to curb the growing presence of imported product.

The US International Trade Commission (ITC) opened the investigation on July 13 under Section 201 of the Trade Act of 1974, after the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) concluded that imported lamb had “significantly undercut” the domestic market. The ITC has about 120 days to determine whether imports are causing “serious injury” to the domestic industry. If it finds that they are, it will recommend tariffs or quotas to the president.

US fed cattle prices extended their sharp correction last week, with processors regaining bargaining power after several months of historically strong cattle markets.

According to The AG Center, the US$/cwt 25 decline in cash prices has occurred in a nearly straight line, as feedlot operators have largely conceded to packers seeking to restore negative processing margins.

Compared to the last market test, US beef import prices were mostly moderately higher, with some instances reported as steady.

Chinese beef imports approached 250,000 tons in June, the highest monthly volume since February, according to GACC data.

Chinese sheepmeat imports increased in June but were 20% lower year on year in the first half of the year.

China rejected 34,021 kg of imported beef in June, the lowest monthly volume so far in 2026 and sharply below the 286,122 kg recorded in May, according to OIG+X information based on GACC data.

China produced 50.5 million tons of pork, beef, sheepmeat and poultry in the first half of 2026, up 4.3% year on year, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

Growth was driven mainly by poultry production, while beef and sheepmeat output declined.

South Korea imported 284,045 tons of beef between January and June 2026, a record for a first half since comparable records began in 1994, according to data from the country’s Customs Service. The volume was 9.9% above the 258,430 tons imported in the same period of 2025.