From Shanghai, China.

A high degree of uncertainty over what may happen in the coming weeks is dominating conversations in the beef halls at SIAL Shanghai, which opened on Monday, May 18, and concludes today, Wednesday, May 20.

After the sharp rally in China’s import prices during the first quarter of the year, values stabilized and have recently moved lower.

Australia’s exit from the Chinese market after exhausting its quota, combined with elevated US beef prices, is creating expectations for improved trading opportunities for South American grainfed beef in China.

An Australian trader described this year’s SIAL as having fewer opportunistic players and a more professional business environment, while discussions around China’s quota system dominated much of the conversation. “I see fewer people than in previous years, but also fewer improvised traders,” he said from Shanghai.

Another focus of discussion at SIAL was the United States. A trader told WBR that many Chinese importers do not believe the reinstatement of US plants (see more in North America) will necessarily result in a significant increase in supply.

Expectations of a larger inflow of Brazilian beef into the US market starting in June are putting downward pressure on import prices.

After weeks of mixed signals regarding the removal of import tariffs on beef from all origins — a move that would mainly benefit Brazil — market participants at SIAL Shanghai were treating it as a near certainty on Tuesday that the Trump administration will move forward in the coming days.

Prices for chilled rump & loin cuts continued to move lower for the fourth consecutive week, with no clear floor yet emerging.

The Chilean market continues to show a significant gap between executed business and the price expectations of some Paraguayan exporters. According to a Chilean importer, current business from Brazil for 19/20 cuts is trading between US$/t 6,950 and 7,100, depending on the plant and brand.

Regional slaughter cattle prices posted a sharp decline over the past week (-10 cents), with the World Beef Report Mercosur Steer Index averaging US$/kg 4.94 carcass. The benchmark thus fell below the US$ 5.00 threshold after holding above that level for five consecutive weeks.

Amid the uncertainty dominating conversations at SIAL Shanghai, Argentine trader Fausto Brighenti, one of the principals at Ideal Trading, said the Chinese beef market is operating at historically high price levels, but with limited room for further upside in the short term.

At SIAL Shanghai, the Brazilian beef situation has become one of the market’s main talking points. Marcelo Albanell, one of the leading figures at Sudambeef and based in Brazil, told Informe Tardáguila that the biggest question today is how much longer Brazil will be able to ship beef to China under the current quota conditions.

Brazil shipped 55,470 tons of beef during the second week of May, with a daily average of 11,090 tons, down 35.4% from the previous week, according to Agrifatto.

Net profit fell 55% year-on-year to US$ 221 million, compared with US$ 500 million in the first quarter of 2025.

The group reported net profit attributable to controlling shareholders of R$ 111 million (US$ 22 million) in the first quarter of 2026, up 26% from the same period last year.

The company slaughtered 136,600 head between January and March, down 14% year-on-year, reflecting Brazil’s cattle cycle shift. Even so, results improved on stronger domestic sales.

The week started with limited business in Brazil’s fed cattle market. Many buyers had yet to open bids, waiting to assess wholesale market performance after the weekend, while others were operating with comfortable slaughter schedules and no urgency to secure cattle. According to Scot Consultoria, slaughter schedules were averaging 10 days.

From Shanghai, China

As operations ramp up at its Florida plant, Pablo Avero, one of the principals at Abasto Saturno, told WBR at SIAL Shanghai that the company is moving ahead with its export strategy while awaiting China approval and opening additional markets.

With a packed schedule of technical and political meetings, the official Uruguayan delegation arrived at SIAL Shanghai with a clear objective: strengthen ties with China at a particularly sensitive moment for the beef trade. Uruguay’s Vice Minister of Livestock, Agriculture and Fisheries, Matías Carámbula, highlighted the strategic importance of the visit and stressed the work being done on residue controls, sanitary approvals and new business opportunities.

The value generated from the sale of all products derived from a Type Steer 2.0 after processing increased 2.1% month-on-month in April to US$/head 2,018, setting a new all-time high in the historical series, with gains across all components measured in US dollars, including exports, domestic market sales, offal and byproducts, and fresh hide.

The fed cattle market remains firm, with a few additional cents added across virtually all categories and processors continuing to actively secure supply for this week.

Uruguay’s beef slaughter totaled 47,174 head in the week ended May 16, up 13% from the previous week (+5,464 head) and marking the highest weekly industrial activity since the second week of February. However, volumes remain around 9,000 head below the same week last year.

Industrial sheep slaughter rose for the second consecutive week. A total of 8,062 head were processed in the latest week. According to INAC data, slaughter included 4,126 lambs (51% of the total) and 3,275 ewes (41%).

Chinese authorities confirmed to the Argentine mission in the country that there will be no changes to the quota allocations for beef supplier countries, contrary to speculation circulating in recent weeks. Taking advantage of SIAL Shanghai, an Argentine delegation composed of diplomats, trade negotiators, SENASA officials, and representatives from the Argentine Beef Promotion Institute (IPCVA) held meetings with Chinese authorities in Beijing.

More than a month after the detection of classical scrapie cases — a disease from which Argentina had been considered free — in sheep in the provinces of Santa Fe and Entre Ríos, the Brazilian market remains closed, affecting Argentina’s second most important destination for sheepmeat exports.

Export steer prices remained broadly steady, with no significant changes. Better-quality British cross finished cattle traded between Ar$/kg 7,900 and 8,100 on the hook, with some isolated deals reaching Ar$/kg 8,200, while zebu cross cattle remained in the Ar$/kg 7,800–8,000 range.

As part of negotiations to open the Mexican market to Paraguayan beef, Mexican sanitary authorities have launched a comprehensive audit of Paraguay’s veterinary system, a key step in the approval process that could expand export opportunities. According to La Nación, the delegation will visit the central veterinary laboratory and 10 export-approved plants.

Paraguay’s cattle market remains very firm, with list prices at US$/kg 4.80 carcass for common slaughter males and US$/kg 4.60 carcass for cows, although actual business is being done between 3% and 5% above those levels, according to an intermediary consulted by World Beef Report (WBR).

China has extended export registrations for 425 US beef plants for another five years, marking the clearest sign yet of restored access to the Chinese market after months of restrictions.

The rapid escalation in cattle prices is intensifying pressure on processor margins, increasing the likelihood of further cuts in slaughter volumes in the coming weeks.

Trading for Australia/New Zealand product remained slow, while South American trade was moderate. Weaker foodservice demand continued to pressure forward prices.

The European Union announced that it will exclude Brazil from the list of countries authorized to export meat and other animal-origin products to the bloc starting on September 3, arguing that the guarantees presented by the country regarding the control of antimicrobial use as growth promoters in animal production are insufficient.

China renewed import licenses for hundreds of US beef plants, reviving trade flows as Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet in Beijing in an effort to stabilize commercial and geopolitical relations.

According to OIG data based on GACC figures, this was the lowest monthly volume since December (208,000 tons), although broadly in line with April 2025.

Only 211 tons of beef were blocked from entering China by customs authorities in April, according to information published by OIG+X.