The Chinese market saw limited activity at the start of this week due to Monday’s holiday. Very few players were active on Tuesday, in a context of growing uncertainty driven by the belief that Brazil will exhaust its quota of just over 1.1 million tons within a short period.

The elimination of the 20% tariff on the Hilton quota starting May 1 is already being reflected in market dynamics, with price increases of around 10% over the past week for shipments arriving after that date.

The US market continues to be pressured by growing supply from South America. Import market sources indicated references this week of US$/t 6,850–6,950 FOB for 90CL from Argentina under quota. Meanwhile, a trader quoted US$/t 6,150 CFR for 95CL outside quota.

A Brazilian trader described a complex scenario for exports to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), with both operational and financial challenges.

One of the main issues is the partial disruption of flows to Iran due to the absence of religious supervisors responsible for halal certification.

An Israeli importer said the kosher market still lacks clear price references following the Easter break, amid logistical and operational uncertainty. “There are still no deals being closed anywhere,” he said, although expectations point to price increases of US$/t 400–500 depending on origin.

The Russian market has fallen sharply—from nearly 20,000 tons in the January–March quarter of 2021, when it competed with Chile as the top destination, to just over 800 tons in the same period of 2026 (down 81% year-on-year). Russia now ranks ninth among destinations, even behind markets such as Uruguay.

A regional importer described the Chilean market as “very volatile and without a clear direction,” with competition from other destinations and rising costs weighing on operations.

The average value of slaughter cattle in the region rose for the second consecutive week, driven by higher references in Brazil and Uruguay. The WBR Mercosur steer index increased by 4 cents to US$ 4.87 per kg carcass weight.

Brazilian beef exports remained at strong levels in March, with volumes showing marked stability compared to the previous two months.

Brazilian beef exports to China declined moderately compared to recent months, but enough for March to mark the lowest level since March 2025, one year ago.

Secex reported that 101,990 tons of beef were shipped to China in March, less than 2 thousand tons below February.

The top 10 destinations for frozen beef in the first quarter increased their import volumes compared to the same period in 2025.

Brazilian chilled beef exports to European Union member countries continue to trend upward.

In March, Secex reported shipments of 2,498 tons, up 11% from February and 65% higher year-on-year.

A Japanese technical mission has arrived in Brazil to assess its animal health system as part of the process to authorize beef exports to the Asian country, a market Brazil has sought to access for decades, according to Valor. The audit, which will run through April 13, will focus on the three southern states, certified as free of foot-and-mouth disease without vaccination, despite Brazil’s request to expand the scope to other regions.

Despite uncertainty and the impacts of the conflict in the Middle East, Brazil’s cattle market remained firm throughout March. According to Cepea, finished male prices started the month at high levels, sustaining February values, supported by limited availability of market-ready cattle and active external demand.

The first shipment of bone-in beef from Rio Grande do Sul to Chile, completed on March 27, marks a turning point for the state’s cattle sector. According to Antonia Scalzilli, this development reflects the economic and strategic value of the state’s foot-and-mouth disease-free status without vaccination, granted by the World Organization for Animal Health.

JBS inaugurated on April 1 its new advanced biotechnology laboratory, JBS Biotech, in Florianópolis, aimed at developing functional and alternative proteins through applied science. The 4,000 m² complex, with more than 20 laboratories, is designed to cover the full innovation process, from molecular biology to industrial validation.

“In the first week of April, the spot market for slaughter cattle went through one of the firmest periods in recent years,” according to an analysis by Agrifatto on the current state of Brazil’s cattle market.

Uruguayan beef exports in the first quarter of 2026 totaled 90.8 thousand tons at an average value of US$ 7,557 per ton shipment weight, according to Customs export request data. Volume declined 6% year-on-year, while the average value increased by nearly 20%.

The rise in export prices to China following the announcement of safeguard measures to protect domestic production was fully reflected in March export values.

Although the United States remains the main destination for Uruguay’s frozen boneless beef exports, volumes declined 10% year-on-year in the first quarter to 29,330 tons.

Uruguayan beef exports to the European Union moved away from the peaks seen in 2025 and started the year with significantly lower volumes, particularly in frozen shipments.

In the first quarter, China accounted for 70% of Uruguay’s bovine stomach exports, while Japan absorbed 89% of tongue exports, according to Customs data.

The way in which the quota granted by China to Uruguay for 2026 will be distributed will be defined by the board of INAC “without urgency,” its president, Gastón Scayola, told WBR. The goal is to have it resolved before the next SIAL Shanghai trade fair, which begins on May 18.

Based on the criteria outlined by Scayola, slightly more than one-third of the quota would be allocated to three plants.

Unlike the Hilton quota, the new 99,000-ton carcass weight beef quota—under the EU–Mercosur trade agreement—will be applied on a calendar-year basis rather than an agricultural year. This was confirmed by Vice Foreign Minister Valeria Csukasi in an interview with Oriental Agropecuaria 770 AM this Monday.

The period of weaker demand is over. Plants that had suspended or reduced slaughter are now showing interest in resuming operations, which not only set a floor for the market but also triggered a rebound, with prices this week reaching levels not seen in the previous one.

As is typically the case, activity in the meatpacking industry during Easter week was reduced, but the decline was significantly greater than in previous years.

Supply in the sheep slaughter market is virtually nonexistent. Although demand has fallen to a minimum, the market remains firm, with price references holding at high levels—around US$ 5.85 for lambs and US$ 4.90–5.00 for mutton.

According to a report from the Ministry of Economy based on data from SENASA, Argentina’s cattle herd totaled 50.92 million head as of December 31, 2025, down 704,000 animals from the previous year.

Between the end of 2024 and the end of 2025, the breeding herd (cows and heifers) declined by 516,000 head (1.8%), mainly driven by the cow category. According to the report, “this behavior was expected, given the level of female slaughter recorded in 2025,” although the decline was smaller than in the previous two years, when it averaged 850,000 head annually. Still, the 21.5 million cows in inventory represent the lowest level in 15 years.

According to Customs data, as of March 31, 25,962 tons of the EU Hilton quota for the 2025/26 cycle had been executed, leaving only 3,426 tons available for the final quarter of the agricultural year.

Amid calmer conditions and ongoing uncertainty in international beef markets, export steer prices declined by around Ar$ 100 per kg carcass weight. British-breed crosses, which offer better meat quality, fell to a range of Ar$ 7,900–8,100 per kg carcass weight, while zebu crosses declined to Ar$ 7,800–7,900 per kg carcass weight.

Cattle slaughter totaled 159,963 head in March, down 2% from the same month last year and virtually unchanged from February. In the first quarter, slaughter reached 468 thousand head, a 20% decline compared to the same period last year, and the lowest level for that quarter since 2022.

In line with the sharp decline in production at export plants, Paraguay’s beef exports dropped significantly in the first quarter of the year.

Russia, which at the beginning of the decade competed with Chile for the top spot as a destination for Paraguayan beef, has lost almost all relevance.

Most meatpacking plants are holding last week’s listed prices at US$ 4.50 per kg for standard males and US$ 4.20–4.25 per kg for fat cows.

In the year to March 28, the United States imported 716,361 tons of beef, up 12% from the same period in 2025, with increases from all major suppliers, but particularly from South America.

USDA-Ottawa projections for 2026 point to a recovery in beef production in Canada, in a context of higher slaughter following a partial rebuilding of the herd. The greater availability of animals would allow for a moderate increase in supply after several years of contraction.

JBS announced the issuance of US$ 2 billion in international bonds through its subsidiaries JBS USA Food Company Holdings and JBS USA Foods Group Holdings. The transaction was structured in two tranches: US$ 1.25 billion maturing in 2037 with a 5.625% coupon, and US$ 750 million maturing in 2057 with a 6.4% rate.

The plant-based protein company Beyond Meat continues to undergo a restructuring process after reporting negative results in 2025, amid weaker momentum in the plant-based segment, according to FoodNavigator.

US packer buyers closed last week actively, adding inventory at the upper end of recent price ranges, while cattle producers now look to extend the gains of the past two weeks. According to The AG Center, despite feedlot inventories tightening, record-high live weights are partially offsetting the decline in numbers, without implying an oversupply of finished cattle. At the same time, producers continue to struggle to lower breakeven levels amid high replacement costs.

Compared to the prior test, import prices were mostly firm to higher, with some instances moderately higher for immediate delivery. Trading activity remained slow, while South American product continued to move at a moderate to active pace.

Till Friday April 3rd 2026, 4,534 tons were registered for entry under the 481-quota into the European market, exceeding the quarterly allocation by over 2,000 tons. The quota is mainly supplied by Uruguay and Argentina, with a smaller share from Australia.

A livestock disease outbreak in Russia is raising international concern due to its potential scale and nature. Initially linked to cases of pasteurellosis in Siberia, the episode is showing signs of spreading westward, while doubts are increasing as to whether it could in fact be foot-and-mouth disease.

The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 127.7 points in March, up 1.2 points (1%) from February and 9.4 points (8%) above its level a year earlier. The increase was mainly driven by higher pork prices, along with a modest rise in beef quotations, while sheep and poultry prices declined.

Strong competition among exporters to secure Australia’s limited China quota for 2026 accelerated shipments to the Asian market.

The war led to a significant decline in Australian red meat exports to Middle Eastern countries. The most affected product was sheep meat—both lamb and mutton—although beef exports also declined.

National cattle slaughter in Australia continued to expand, reaching its highest weekly level since 2015, while sheep and lamb supply tightened sharply in the lead-up to Easter, MLA said.

The news agency Reuters reported that China has recorded 219 cases of foot-and-mouth disease in cattle in Gansu and Sinkiang provinces, located in the northwest of the country, bordering Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and Russia, among others.

“In 2026 the cattle cycle will reverse, but from a very weak starting point”

Were you surprised by the 2025 cattle inventory data?

Livestock balance indicators had long suggested that the herd would come in just below 51 million head, which is what it ultimately showed. What does surprise me is that, despite the very high heifer slaughter last year, the stock of that category remained unchanged.