At the start of 2026, international trade is expected to show a slowdown compared with 2025. Last year, global goods trade expanded driven by front-loaded imports —especially in the United States— ahead of tariff increases. This behavior was concentrated in the first half of the year and was associated with inventory accumulation.
According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the volume of world merchandise trade is estimated to have grown by 2.4% in 2025, while growth of around 0.5% is projected for 2026. This deceleration is explained by inventory normalization and a context of greater uncertainty regarding trade policy.
This performance confirms a structural trend: in 2026, global goods trade would grow at a slower pace than global GDP, deepening the decoupling between trade and economic activity observed since the international financial crisis.
