Brazil could lose approximately US$ 3 billion in revenue from beef exports that may not be shipped to China due to the country’s new tariff and import quota policy. This is the preliminary estimate by Paulo Mustefaga, president of the Associação Brasileira de Plantas de Processamento de Carne (Abrafrigo).
On Wednesday, December 31, China announced it will set an annual quota of 1.1 million tons for imports of Brazilian beef with a 55% tariff on volumes exceeding that limit.
For 2025, the sector estimates that Brazil will export 1.7 million tons of beef to China. Through November, shipments to the Chinese market reached 1.5 million tons, generating US$ 8 billion.
Mustefaga avoided stating categorically that the tariff would make Brazilian exports beyond the quota unviable, but acknowledged that a 55% rate significantly hampers access to the Chinese market under current conditions. “A 55% tariff could indeed make the export of any volume outside the quota unviable,” he said.
Another concern for the sector is how quotas will be allocated. There are doubts about which country will be responsible for distribution and what criteria will be used. “It could be a criterion that, for example, favors large groups. And it must be an equitable criterion,” Mustefaga noted.
Source: Globo Rural
