Both domestic and external demand for Brazilian beef are expected to continue growing in 2026, driven by a global context of tighter supply and firmer prices. Domestically, a greater flow of money linked to the general elections and the World Cup is expected, which could stimulate consumption despite the impact of debts that still affect some households. These were among the considerations highlighted by Cepea when analyzing the main beef market fundamentals this year, which it views as remaining positive for both domestic and external sales.
The USDA recently confirmed that Brazil became the world’s largest beef producer in 2025, surpassing the United States for the first time. In this context, exports should continue to benefit from a dollar above R$ 5, maintaining the international competitiveness of Brazilian beef.
On the production side, the main challenge would be the availability of quality feeder cattle. Cepea warns of difficulties in finding good lots of lean cattle and cautions that, even if feedlots remain highly occupied, if animals lack genetics favorable to finishing or enter at very light weights, productive efficiency may be affected and feedlot margins compromised.
