The condition of the breeding herd supports expectations of a high pregnancy rate

The strong body condition of the breeding herd is fueling expectations that the next calf crop — to be born in spring 2026 — will be relatively large for the third consecutive year, very close to 3 million head.

The 2024 generation, the calves counted in mid-2025, has already confirmed that it surpassed 3 million. Those born this spring, according to INIA’s Pregnancy Workshop results, should reach a similar number.

The RING survey by the Livestock Plan on the body condition of the breeding herd in Sep–Oct 2025 shows that 59% of herds are in body condition score (BCS) 4 or higher, and only 3% are below 3.5. At the same time last year, 57% of producers reported cows with a BCS of 4 or more.

This year’s good body condition is supported by excellent forage conditions at the height of spring: 68% of surveyed producers indicated that natural pasture height is 5 cm or more, while 87% reported that pasture quality is good or very good.

It is likely that the number of cows being bred this year is slightly lower than last year, due to a larger number of cows and heifers sent to slaughter, taking advantage of high prices. But the total will almost certainly remain close to 4.3 million head. With a weaning rate projected at 70% — which would be the third consecutive year with the rate starting with a “7” — the calves to be born next year and counted in mid-2027 will total around 3 million, also for the third year in a row.