Marcelo Secco, CEO of Marfrig Group for the Southern Cone of America, took part in the fifth edition of the “Let’s talk about the cattle business” conference, organized by the Rural Association of Uruguay together with Valor Agregado from Radio Carve and Rurales El País, during the Expo Prado. There, the executive analyzed the current meat market situation. “We can’t live wondering if there’s a ghost under the sheet,” he said when asked about the current cattle price situation in Uruguay and what happened in 2022, when after record highs were reached, prices collapsed abruptly.
While he acknowledged that comparisons with 2022 are inevitable, he argued that the underlying situation is different. Secco explained that at that time prices were mainly supported by the strength of the Chinese economy, which acted as the driver of demand. “Today China is a very particular economy. In recent weeks it has been seen injecting energy into its economy, there were supports for consumption. That sometimes distorts the market a bit, makes it less genuine,” he noted.
Beyond China’s influence, Secco stressed that today’s market is supported by other factors. “What’s happening today in the world is that geopolitics is different, there’s a stronger level of intervention and lack of respect for trade rules. The US beef economy has extremely high prices and the euro is stronger—in fact, the dollar is weaker. I think structurally the export price is supported by other pillars,” he said.
In that context, the executive pointed out that the international quotation, around US$ 5,000 per ton for Uruguayan beef, looks less vulnerable than in 2022. “It’s a little less risky, although there are issues such as tariff interventions in Brazil. If you strip those elements from the market, it could even out, but I don’t perceive a situation like in 2022, when (the market) crashed like a piano.”
Regarding the possibility of export prices remaining within a relatively stable range, he responded cautiously. “In my opinion, the floating level has a base around US$ 5,000, but with the information I have on the table, I wouldn’t dare say today that Uruguay can sustain a business like the current one when thinking about the year’s end.”
