The Chinese market remains depressed. The tug-of-war between importers and exporters over beef prices continues, with additional pressure from some players to pay less for new deals right at the start of the New Year season.

Prices for rump & loin Hilton cuts firmed again last week, keeping an upward momentum that begun in mid-July with an overall increase of around US$/t 1,500. One importer mentioned purchases from Argentina at US$/t 18,500 FOB, while another indicated that new offers were already being made at US$/t 18,900–19,000. For rib eye, one source informed a reference of US$ 19,800 FOB.

Monday’s Labor Day holiday in the US left the imported beef market without a clear trend. The trade flow has yet to stabilize after the disruption caused by the entry into force of various surcharges imposed by the Trump administration.

A Paraguayan processor highlighted Middle Eastern interest last week in tenderloin side strapp off, with deals closed at US$/t 11,000 CFR. Meanwhile, a trader reported deals from Uruguay for sheep carcasses at US$/t 6,100.

The Russian market for offal has begun to lose strength in recent weeks, particularly for livers.

The average value of cattle in the region rose for the fourth week in a row. The WBR Mercosur Steer Index increased by 1 cent during the week to US$ 4.11 per kilo carcass weight, the highest average sin 2022 and 15 cents above the low reached four weeks ago.

Brazilian beef exports to Mexico had already been growing at a strong pace in recent months, and they are set to increase further with the likely approval of new exporting plants and the impossibility of shipping to the United States, where a tariff of more than 76% makes operations to that market virtually unfeasible.

Brazilian environment agency Ibama has notified 12 meatpacking plants, including two operated by JBS SA, of an inspection into their alleged involvement in a scheme to buy cattle from illegally cleared land in the Amazon rainforest, according to a document seen by Reuters on Friday.

Minerva approved last Thursday, at an extraordinary general meeting, a reduction of its share capital by R$ 577.3 million, aimed at absorbing accumulated losses from the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024.

Methane emissions in Brazil grew 6% in four years, reaching a total of 21.1 million tons in 2023, according to a study released by the Climate Observatory, a network of scientists that brings together 162 research institutes, organizations, and social movements linked to the environmental agenda.

Cattle prices for slaughter in Brazil left behind the upward trend that prevailed during August and shifted to a stable range. The average value in the main cattle-raising states rose R$ 0.5 during the week to R$/@ 298.4, according to regional references from Scot, with 30-day payment terms and excluding the Funrural tax.

Uruguay shipped 33,017 tons shipment weight of beef to international markets at an average value of US$/t 7,356, according to export request data reported by Customs. The volume was nearly 1,600 tons higher than in July, and the average value rose 5.1% month-on-month, just US$/t 25 short of the May 2022 record, when it reached US$/t 7,381.

It takes going back to October 2022 to find a month with less beef exported to the United States than in the recently completed August. According to Customs export request data, 5,852 tons of fresh beef were shipped to the North American market, well below half of the 12,500 tons exported to that destination this past April.

The two markets where beef shortages are most pronounced are those that have grown the most as destinations for Uruguayan exports this year, both in volume and, especially, in revenue generated: the European Union and the United States.

With an average export value more than double that of other destinations, China has quickly absorbed Uruguay’s tripe exports, even with several plants still lacking approval to ship to this market.

The draft Budget bill submitted to the House of Representatives includes an article that changes the composition of INAC’s Board of Directors, removing the seat held by the representative of beef slaughterhouses operating for the domestic market and granting it instead to another association representing any of the meat-producing species under INAC’s scope.

As WBR reported yesterday, multinationals Marfrig and Minerva issued separate statements this morning regarding the sale of Marfrig’s assets to Minerva in Uruguay. The statements reveal opposing views on the deal.

Chinese authorities have once again authorized Sirsil to export meat products to that market. GACC stated that products with a production date from August 29, 2025, will be allowed entry, according to OIG+X.

Market conditions for slaughter cattle remain unchanged from previous weeks: very scarce supply, strong buying interest, and rising prices. Particularly notable are the high carcass yields being achieved.

Cattle slaughter deepened its downward trend in the last week of August, reaching the lowest level in 25 weeks, since the first one of March. INAC reported that in the seven days to August 30, a total of 39,345 cattle entered plants, 4,490 fewer than the previous week, though 451 more than in the same week last year.

Industry demand for sheep is very strong and prices are rising quickly. Lambs are approaching US$ 5.20 per kilo, but the greatest interest is in adult animals, both ewes and wethers. These are paid at the price on the consignors’ sheet for the loading week plus 10 cents per kilo if carcasses weigh less than 27 kilos, and at the ACG price for heavier carcasses.

Prices for replacement cattle “remain firm and high, driven mainly by backgrounders, which narrows profitability margins for feedlots,” said feedlot leader Juan Eiras in an interview with Informe Ganadero. However, short-term prospects are improving, as lower supply between December and February is expected to boost prices for fat cattle destined for slaughter: “We expect an increase of around 10%.”

Export cattle prices jumped again. For steers, prices aligned between higher-quality crossbred fat steers and indicus-cross cattle: in both cases, the range moved to Ar$ 5,900–6,100 per kilo carcass weight.

Despite several of Paraguay’s traditional beef destinations reducing their import volumes, Paraguayan beef exports increased 12% in the year through August.

After the May peak, cattle slaughter at Paraguay’s export-oriented slaughterhouses was lower year-on-year during the June–August quarter. Senacsa reported that in August, 181,006 head of cattle were slaughtered at export plants, down more than 22,000 head from the previous month and 12,000 fewer than in the same month of 2024.

Cattle prices maintained their firm trend last week, with a list price of US$ 4.45 per kg for regular steers and US$ 4.15 for fat cows, although one operator said it was common to close deals for steers between US$ 4.50 and US$ 4.60 per kg.

Beef production in Chile is projected to remain steady in 2026 at 200,000 tons carcass weight, constrained by drought and competition from imports, which meet 70 percent of domestic consumption, said the USDA office in Santiago de Chile.

Brazil's Foreign Ministry has ordered trade body Camex to start analyzing whether a local reciprocity law could be used against the United States after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed steep tariffs on several goods from the South American country.

Cases of New World Screwworm (NWS) continue to rise in Mexico. According to government data cited by Reuters, as of August 17, 5,086 infestations in animals had been recorded, representing a 53% increase compared to July. Of that total, 649 remained active.

Following two weeks of elevated slaughter volumes over 550,000, fed supplies are once again current and asking prices will be higher. Packers were willing to acquire larger inventories in the north, probably needing a few of those cattle for last week’s needs. This week will be one day shorter due to Monday Labor Day holiday.

Compared to the last market test, US beef import prices were sharply higher. Trading was slow to moderate. Moderate to good demand supported prices. There was strong retail and food service demand for the available product.

Australia’s beef industry is on track to break production records in 2025, according to Meat & Livestock Australia’s (MLA) latest Australian Cattle Industry Projections – September Update.

Far from beginning to reinstate the approvals withdrawn in the first quarter from most US slaughterhouses and cold stores, China continues to reduce the number of approved plants from this origin.

Beef (primarily carabeef, meat derived from Asian domestic water buffalo) production in India in 2026 is expected to be driven by domestic needs while export demand is likely to take a back seat, projected the USDA office in New Delhi. 2026 beef production is forecast at 4.7 million metric tons, up one percent from 4.6 million in 2025. 2026 beef exports are forecast to reach 1.55 million tons, up by one percent over 2025.