In recent hours, reports have been circulating about the decision the Chinese government may take in the context of its investigation into the impact of beef imports on its domestic market (industry and producers).

In a move that was foreseeable, President Donald Trump’s announcement last week to raise tariffs by 50% on all Brazilian products from Aug 1st has impacted price dynamics in China, the world’s largest beef importer. With Brazil virtually out of the US market (if Trumps’ announcement is confirmed) Chinese importers took advantage of the situation this week to submit lower bids to close deals with their main supplier.

During the past week, deals were closed from Paraguay with Taiwan.

Prices for Hilton rump & loin cuts strengthened last week in a context of tighter regional supply. Although demand is “not booming,” the strength of the euro against the dollar continues to play in favor, an industry source highlighted.

The tone of the US import market remained unchanged. “Everything is still on hold, waiting to see what will actually happen with the tariffs on Brazil,” a trader operating in that market told WBR.

Chile’s import prices moved without major fluctuations during the past week, with references of US$/t 5,850-6,000 CFR for the 19 cuts from Brazil and US$/t 6,100-6,200 from Paraguay.

The threat by US President Donald Trump to impose a 50% tariff on imports of Brazilian products hit the average slaughter cattle price hard in Mercosur countries. Although there is time to negotiate until August 1 — when the additional rate would come into effect, raising the tariff on Brazilian beef to 86.4% — the market has already felt the impact, as has the exchange rate of the Brazilian currency.

Data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) for the first two weeks of July shows a moderation in the export pace and in the average export value of beef during the second week of the period.

Brazil’s Minister of Agriculture and Livestock, Carlos Fávaro, described as an “indecent action” the US government’s decision to impose 50% tariffs on Brazilian products such as beef, orange juice, and coffee, Reuters reported.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva expressed Brazil’s interest in diversifying trade with Indonesia, including sectors such as civil aviation, defense, and beef. “We want to facilitate the trade of Brazilian beef, which can contribute to the food security of the Indonesian people.

The Brazilian economy recorded a 0.7% drop in May, according to the Central Bank’s Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br), ending a streak of four consecutive months of growth. The seasonally adjusted result was worse than the stability expected by analysts, reported Pecuaria.

In a statement to the market, Minerva estimated that the impact of Trump’s tariffs on Brazilian products will be around 5% of its revenue. The company said it “accesses the U.S. market through its operations in Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Australia.”

Marfrig informed the stock market that it now directly and indirectly holds 58.87% of BRF’s share capital, according to a statement released on Friday. The new shareholder position includes both common shares and derivative financial instruments with and without cash settlement.

Trump’s announcement of a 50% tariff on Brazil came at a very inopportune time for the Brazilian livestock sector, as the price trend was already downward and the potential withdrawal of its second-largest foreign customer only exacerbated it.

The chances for Minerva’s new proposal to acquire three Marfrig plants in Uruguay (La Caballada, Colonia, and Inaler) and then divest two (Colonia to India’s Allana Group immediately and Inaler to a third party within 24 months) are starting to narrow.

The Ministry of Livestock (MGAP) reported on Monday that “the issuance of new live export permits for immediate slaughter is temporarily suspended. We will notify when permits resume.” The decision was communicated by email by Dr. Sandra Acosta, head of the Animal Health Division.

Uruguayan cattle ranching closed out a strong 2024/25 season, driven by a buoyant international market with high prices that were passed on to cattle values, both for slaughter animals and for replacement and breeding stock.

Part of the demand has shifted toward grainfed cattle, while others have reduced their activity, and the two main companies in the sector are operating three of their four plants. This has moderated demand for grassfed animals, but supply is extremely scarce, so the market remains firm. The operators consulted yesterday noted that prices remain within the same ranges as last week.

As expected, there was a further decline in slaughterhouse activity last week. The suspension of operations at Tacuarembó plant, operated by Marfrig, added to the closure of Carrasco, operated by Minerva. A total of 23 plants were active, one less than the previous week and two less than two weeks ago.

Sheep slaughter rose by more than 4,000 head during the week, although it was about 1,000 animals below the same period last year. INAC reported that in the week ending July 12, 11,506 sheep were processed in slaughter plants, of which 6,128 (53% of the total) were lambs.

Yesterday morning, President Javier Milei met for the first time with representatives of Argentina’s four national agricultural producer organizations. According to accounts afterward, they were able to present the main issues affecting them.

According to the Argentine Feedlot Chamber (CAF), which brings together 114 professional operations with a combined capacity of 870,000 head, the sector had a good first half of the year, as it did last year, favored by the drop in feed costs, although somewhat offset by rising calf prices.

In a statement, the Agriculture Secretariat reported that in the 2024/25 cycle, Argentina shipped 29,350.4 tons under the Hilton Quota to the EU, practically the entire total quota (29,389 tons).

Export steer prices saw another increase, of around Ar$ 50 per kilo carcass weight. Crossbred British steers of better quality rose to between Ar$ 5,150 and 5,350 per kilo carcass eight, while crossbred zebu steers climbed to the Ar$ 5,050–5,150 range.

The Paraguayan Association of Meat Producers and Exporters (Appec) released the monthly report of the Type Steer 2.0 indicator for May, showing another monthly increase in the index.

Slaughter cattle prices strengthened sharply again over the past week. Sources from the trading sector reported references for common male cattle around US$ 3.90 per kilo carcass weight and US$ 3.60 for finished cows with short bookings, in many cases less than a week. Meanwhile, an industry source indicated that for larger-volume loads, they had to stretch up to US$ 4.00 to secure common males with fast delivery.

Chile maintains a steady and fluid pace of beef imports. In recent months, according to Odepa data, volumes have hovered around 21,000 tons per month. This volume is being purchased by the main importer in the region at increasing average prices.

US beef and beef by-product exports totaled 97,266 mt in May, down 12% and the lowest in nearly five years. Export value was $798.7 million, down 11.5% and the lowest in 18 months. Muscle cut exports accounted for 76,967 tons for US$ 716 million.

The US has halted livestock imports from Mexico again, just days after the trade resumed.

Cattle owners will bargain to continue the upward momentum to sales prices for fed cattle. Supplies are short enough to maintain leverage for weekly cash trades, according to The AG Center report.

Compared to the prior market test, US beef import trading was slow following the Independence Day holiday weekend.

Argentina is at just one step to export beef offal to China. In early June, under the supervision of Senasa, China’s GACC conducted a final audit of Argentine slaughterhouses and laboratories. “This marked a key step toward signing a sanitary agreement, paving the way for Argentina to begin exporting beef offal to China”, said OIG+X in its Monthly Report.

Weak end-user demand for beef is causing imported beef stocks to increase in cold storage facilities in China. According to the index updated monthly by OIG+X, it stood around 83 in June, after having hit a low of under 75 in December 2024. The index is set with a base of 100 in December 2023.

China’s economic growth exceeded expectations in the second quarter but a more pronounced slowdown is becoming likely in the months ahead, made worse by risks to global trade and sluggish consumer demand at home.