US beef cow slaughter on pace for 10 years low

Cow slaughter was down by more than 17% through mid-May. If that trend continues through the rest of the year, beef cow slaughter would be at the lowest levels since 2015, analyst Kenny Burdine wrote in Drovers.

Changes in beef cow inventory are driven by two factors – how many new bred heifers enter the herd each year and how many cows exit the herd through culling and death loss. As is always the case when calf prices are high, a lot of discussion has been focused on heifer retention thus far in 2025.

Heifers as a percentage of on-feed inventory has been decreasing, but not at a rate that suggests widespread retention. “I would expect heifer retention to increase for the rest of 2025 if calf prices stay high and weather cooperates. However, there is always a time lag between heifer retention and the associated impact on the size of the cow herd”, Burdine said.

A heifer calf born in the spring of 2025 would likely not have her first calf until spring of 2027 and would not wean that first calf until that fall. So, heifer retention in the second half of 2025 most likely impacts the size of the cow herd in 2027, not 2026.