Cattle slaughter decline in 2024/25 will be much smaller than expected

Cattle slaughter in the 2024/25 cycle, now in its final stretch, is expected to total around 2.33 million head, representing a minimal drop from the previous cycle —roughly 50,000 head— driven primarily by a consistent decline in the number of females sent to slaughter.

The drop in female slaughter compared to the previous year is entirely logical: in 2023/24, the country experienced one of the most severe droughts in decades, which left many breeding cows empty. As producers sought to reduce grazing pressure, many of these cows were sent to slaughter despite unattractive prices.

Clearly, that has not been the case this cycle. The number of non-pregnant cows in the breeding herd was the lowest on record, significantly reducing the supply of cows for slaughter —especially during the second half of 2024— compared to the same period in 2023. This began to change in early 2025, and in the second quarter, it is estimated that around 220,000 cows will be slaughtered, well above the 207,000 recorded between April and June 2024. The main driver of this sharp increase is the high value of slaughter cattle, which creates strong incentives to sell to processors. The industry has noted a significant rise in the number of pregnant cows arriving at slaughter plants.

As a result, the decline in cow slaughter has eased in the final quarter. Instead of dropping to around 750,000 head for the cycle, the total will be closer to 790,000.

To this situation, heifers must be added. The incentive to fatten them —either on pasture or in feedlots— is clear. Approximately 330,000 heifers will be slaughtered in 2024/25, over 30,000 more than the previous cycle.

As for steers, initial projections anticipated a decline in slaughter of around 100,000 head, but this will ultimately not materialize. The incentive to accelerate finishing and take advantage of very high prices is strong and reflected in full feedlot capacity. In 2023/24, 1.125 million steers were slaughtered, a number that will rise to approximately 1.18 million in the current cycle. The decline in the slaughter of young steers (up to 4 teeth) will be around 60,000 head —significantly less than expected— and will be offset by an increase in the number of 6- and 8-tooth steers.