Report 1628

Import prices in China continued an upward trend despite the wave of pessimism on stock markets and economic outlooks brought on by Trump’s tariff effect. Sources in China’s import market reported to World Beef Report (WBR) that eight forequarter cuts from Brazil were trading at US$5,700/ton CFR, in a scenario where stocks of forequarter cuts remain high—though not so for butt cuts, which “are low,” according to the source. Meanwhile, one broker noted that some Brazilian plants were placing bids of US$6,000–6,100/ton for forequarter cuts.

Commercial operations with the United States have turned into an ordeal following Trump’s announcement last week of sweeping tariff hikes on various beef suppliers (and other goods), with different rates depending on origin. One trader said customs brokers are overwhelmed and not answering inquiries, while others are reversing or revising credit orders to add the tariff to already finalized deals. Another dilemma is determining from which point the tariff increase officially applies—whether at clearance in the country of origin and loading, or upon arrival in the US.

During the past week, rump & loin Hilton prices held firm, with deals closed from Argentina at US$17,500/ton FOB and plants asking US$18,000/ton for new shipments. In Uruguay’s case, deals remained mostly stable at around US$16,500/ton over the last week.

As expected, (and as has been the case in all recent quarters), the April–June quota window for the 481 grainfed cattle in the EU was exceeded.

Uruguay sealed deals last week with MENA for lamb carcasses at US$5,200/ton CFR and adult sheep at US$3,800/ton. There were also deals for adult sheep six-way cuts at US$3,600/ton, according to one trader.

With several Brazilian exporters quoting more than US$6,000/ton CFR for the 19–20-cut pack, Chile’s import market saw “very limited” activity last week, a trader reported.

The escalation of the trade war initiated by the US government is having a strong impact on global balances. One segment bearing the brunt is the currencies of emerging countries that export raw materials, which stand to see their export opportunities shrink due to rising tariffs and expectations of slower global economic growth.

Brazil’s beef exports reached a record high in March. According to the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), 215,427 metric tons of beef were shipped, 49,000 tons more than in the same month of 2024, and marking the first time in history that March exports exceeded 200,000 tons.

Brazil shipped a record volume of beef to the United States in March, surpassing 35 thousand tons. According to data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), Brazil shipped 35,838 tons to that market, 56% more than in February and triple the March 2024 figure. This is a record for shipments to the world’s leading power. In the first quarter, Brazil exported 74,225 tons of beef to the United States, an annual increase of 119%.

The European Union’s limited domestic beef production is boosting the demand for frozen imports. In the first quarter of the year, Brazil exported 14,102 tons of frozen beef, a 39% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Meanwhile, the average export value rose by 15% year-on-year, to US$7,696 per ton.

“History always repeats itself, at least twice.” The phrase by the philosopher Georg Hegel fits Minerva Foods — the largest beef exporter in South America— like a glove. After suffering a brutal devaluation following a merger or acquisition with Marfrig for R$7.5 billion and seeing its debt skyrocket, the Vilela de Queiroz–owned company will turn to its shareholders to fix its balance sheet, according to TheAgriBiz. In a material fact announcement, the company reported a private capital increase of R$2.0 billion (about US$338 million), an amount capable of balancing the company’s capital structure by reducing leverage (the ratio between net debt and Ebitda), which reached five times in December.

Marfrig completed a new issuance of Agribusiness Receivables Certificates (CRAs) totaling R$ 1.5 billion (around US$ 253 million). The operation, coordinated by BTG Pactual and with participation from BB Investimentos, XP, Safra, Bradesco BBI, and Santander, attracted full market demand.

Good forage conditions following timely rainfall across vast cattle-raising areas have given producers greater flexibility when offering their animals to the market. Coupled with the additional demand that typically appears in the first few days of each month, this has again pushed slaughter cattle prices upward.

The investigation being carried out by China regarding the impact of beef imports on domestic prices in the meat sector will certainly extend until the end of August, and before that date “it’s not possible to speculate on the decision they will make,” said INAC President Gastón Scayola, who last week participated in the hearing organized by the Chinese government to hear the positions of both domestic producers and beef exporters to China.

Uruguay has secured authorization to export bone-in sheep meat to the Algerian market, as well as poultry to Hong Kong, announced Livestock Minister Alfredo Fratti during a press conference at INAC headquarters.

The market for slaughter cattle remains firm, with somewhat higher supply and demand that, in some cases, has pushed out bookings, balancing prices and prompting some buyers to offer slightly lower quotes.

Cattle slaughter rose again, reaching the highest volume in seven weeks, since the second week of February, when the last 481-quota window closed. INAC reported that 48,834 cattle entered plants during the week ending April 5, nearly 1,700 more than the previous week (+4%) and 30% higher than the same week last year.

The sheep meat market remains stable with the same prices as last week. The supply is very limited, faced with demand concentrated in just two slaughter plants.

Sheep slaughter saw a significant drop last week. INAC reported that 8,004 sheep were processed during the week ending April 5, nearly 6,000 fewer than the previous week.

As in the previous two months, slaughter again declined in March, both compared to the previous month and to the same month last year.

Females accounted for 45.9% of total slaughter in March, versus 47.0% in the previous month. In the first quarter of 2025, females represented 46.4% of the total.

Although no official data have yet been released, reports circulating about Argentina’s bovine inventory at the end of 2024 suggest it stands at around 51.6 million head —about 1.2 million fewer than in 2023 and down 2.6 million over the past two years.

Prices for export cattle recorded a decline in some categories. The best export steers —British crossbreeds— maintained last week’s prices of Ar$5,000 to Ar$5,100 per kilo carcass weight, while Zebu-cross animals dropped Ar$100 at the high end, trading between Ar$4,900 and Ar$5,000 per kilo.

Expectations of reduced production and lower beef exports from Paraguay this year were not borne out in the first quarter. According to Senacsa data, Paraguay placed 90,615 metric tons of beef on the international market through March, a robust 31% increase over the same period in 2024. The average export price rose 17% year-on-year, to US$5,627/ton.

Widespread rain in the Chaco region and delays in foot-and-mouth vaccination have noticeably curbed supply. “The packers are chasing after cattle,” an intermediary noted. This week, common steers were paid around US$3.90 per kilo carcass weight, while cows were at US$3.60. For larger-volume transactions, sales have already reached US$4.00 for steers, while feedlot operations get a premium of 3–5% above listed prices.

The tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump on trading partners will likely push the United States and the global economy into recession in 2025, according to JPMorgan's chief economist, Bruce Kasman. “The risk of a global economic recession this year rises to 60%, from 40%,” Kasman said in a note to clients, describing the tariffs as the largest tax increase on American households and businesses since 1968.

February exports of US pork were moderately lower than a year ago, despite continued success in Mexico and Central America, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF). February beef exports were also below last year after trending higher in January, while lamb muscle cut exports posted a year-over-year increase for the fifth consecutive month.

According to projections by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), by 2034 the top global importers of chicken meat could purchase over 15 million tons, a volume nearly 25% higher than last year. Among the 24 countries or blocs listed by the USDA, only three are expected to import less than last year: China, Russia, and Ukraine.

Mexico has detected its first human case of H5N1 avian influenza, also known as bird flu, the health ministry said on Friday according to Reuters. The infection was confirmed on Tuesday in a three-year-old girl living in the northern state of Durango, who remains hospitalized in serious condition.

Not surprisingly, the cash market in the US was muddled this past week encapsuled with trade announcements and interruptions and interpretations of the new tariffs. Two hard days down in cattle futures cast a damper over any optimism one might have for the current market prices. In the north live cattle traded for US$/cwt 210-213 — mainly US$/cwt 3-5 weaker.

Compared to last market test, US beef import prices were not fully established.

The FAO meat price index averaged 118.0 points in March, up 1 point (0.9%) from the revised February value and 3.1 points (2.7%) above the level of a year ago.

The increase was mainly due to higher pork prices, especially driven by rising quotations in the European Union after Germany regained its foot-and-mouth disease-free status, prompting key trade partners like the United Kingdom to lift import bans. Increased demand helped stabilize the market, while the stronger euro against the US dollar supported the upward trend.

Per capita meat consumption in Germany grew in 2024, marking two consecutive years of increases. It reached 53.2 kg/person. Chicken showed the strongest growth, rising to 13.6 kg, while pork remained stable with a slight drop of 100 g to 28.4 kg.

Slovak veterinary authorities have confirmed a fifth outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease within their territory, in a dairy cattle farm with 3,526 animals located in the Bratislava district, near the Austrian border and close to the Czech Republic.

Despite some serious logistical challenges caused by Cyclone Alfred, Australian beef exports held up remarkably well during March. Total export shipments to all markets last month reached 112,423 tons, only 5,000t less than February, and 6,000t higher than March last year, Beef Central reported.

Less than 48 hours after Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement of new import tariffs, Beijing retaliated with mirror duties that on average match the additional 34% Washington imposed on products imported from China.

China’s ongoing investigation into the impact of beef imports on domestic beef cattle prices is expected to yield a preliminary report by late July, according to Agro Estadão.

Beef exports to China began 2025 at levels significantly lower than last year. It is estimated that around 575 thousand tons of fresh beef were shipped to China in the first quarter of this year, roughly 80 thousand tons less than in the same period of 2024.