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Report 1628

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editor: Rafael Tardáguila

Published: April 2025

FOB Mercosur

Despite the trade war, prices remain firm in China

Import prices in China continued an upward trend despite the wave of pessimism on stock markets and economic outlooks brought on by Trump’s tariff effect. Sources in China’s import market reported to World Beef Report (WBR) that eight forequarter cuts from Brazil were trading at US$5,700/ton CFR, in a scenario where stocks of forequarter cuts remain high—though not so for butt cuts, which “are low,” according to the source. Meanwhile, one broker noted that some Brazilian plants were placing bids of US$6,000–6,100/ton for forequarter cuts.

FOB Mercosur

Chaos in trade with the US

Commercial operations with the United States have turned into an ordeal following Trump’s announcement last week of sweeping tariff hikes on various beef suppliers (and other goods), with different rates depending on origin. One trader said customs brokers are overwhelmed and not answering inquiries, while others are reversing or revising credit orders to add the tariff to already finalized deals. Another dilemma is determining from which point the tariff increase officially applies—whether at clearance in the country of origin and loading, or upon arrival in the US.

FOB Mercosur

Sheep meat deals sealed with MENA

Uruguay sealed deals last week with MENA for lamb carcasses at US$5,200/ton CFR and adult sheep at US$3,800/ton. There were also deals for adult sheep six-way cuts at US$3,600/ton, according to one trader.

FOB Mercosur

Limited operations in Chile

With several Brazilian exporters quoting more than US$6,000/ton CFR for the 19–20-cut pack, Chile’s import market saw “very limited” activity last week, a trader reported.

FOB Mercosur - Markets

The new global balances hit the Mercosur steer price

The escalation of the trade war initiated by the US government is having a strong impact on global balances. One segment bearing the brunt is the currencies of emerging countries that export raw materials, which stand to see their export opportunities shrink due to rising tariffs and expectations of slower global economic growth.

Brazil

Exports to the United States were a record in March

Brazil shipped a record volume of beef to the United States in March, surpassing 35 thousand tons. According to data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), Brazil shipped 35,838 tons to that market, 56% more than in February and triple the March 2024 figure. This is a record for shipments to the world’s leading power. In the first quarter, Brazil exported 74,225 tons of beef to the United States, an annual increase of 119%.

Brazil

Frozen exports to the EU increase 39% year-on-year

The European Union’s limited domestic beef production is boosting the demand for frozen imports. In the first quarter of the year, Brazil exported 14,102 tons of frozen beef, a 39% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Meanwhile, the average export value rose by 15% year-on-year, to US$7,696 per ton.


Brazil

Minerva aims for about US$338 million from its shareholders to reduce debt

“History always repeats itself, at least twice.” The phrase by the philosopher Georg Hegel fits Minerva Foods — the largest beef exporter in South America— like a glove. After suffering a brutal devaluation following a merger or acquisition with Marfrig for R$7.5 billion and seeing its debt skyrocket, the Vilela de Queiroz–owned company will turn to its shareholders to fix its balance sheet, according to TheAgriBiz. In a material fact announcement, the company reported a private capital increase of R$2.0 billion (about US$338 million), an amount capable of balancing the company’s capital structure by reducing leverage (the ratio between net debt and Ebitda), which reached five times in December.

Brazil

Marfrig places issuance worth over US$ 250 million

Marfrig completed a new issuance of Agribusiness Receivables Certificates (CRAs) totaling R$ 1.5 billion (around US$ 253 million). The operation, coordinated by BTG Pactual and with participation from BB Investimentos, XP, Safra, Bradesco BBI, and Santander, attracted full market demand.

Brazil - Markets

Slaughter cattle price continues to rise in reais

Good forage conditions following timely rainfall across vast cattle-raising areas have given producers greater flexibility when offering their animals to the market. Coupled with the additional demand that typically appears in the first few days of each month, this has again pushed slaughter cattle prices upward.


Uruguay

“It’s not possible to speculate on China's decision”

The investigation being carried out by China regarding the impact of beef imports on domestic prices in the meat sector will certainly extend until the end of August, and before that date “it’s not possible to speculate on the decision they will make,” said INAC President Gastón Scayola, who last week participated in the hearing organized by the Chinese government to hear the positions of both domestic producers and beef exporters to China.

Uruguay

Cattle slaughter in Q1 reaches highest level since 2022

Cattle slaughter rose again, reaching the highest volume in seven weeks, since the second week of February, when the last 481-quota window closed. INAC reported that 48,834 cattle entered plants during the week ending April 5, nearly 1,700 more than the previous week (+4%) and 30% higher than the same week last year.

Uruguay - Markets

Sheep meat market unchanged

The sheep meat market remains stable with the same prices as last week. The supply is very limited, faced with demand concentrated in just two slaughter plants.

Sheep slaughter saw a significant drop last week. INAC reported that 8,004 sheep were processed during the week ending April 5, nearly 6,000 fewer than the previous week.

Argentina - Markets

Slight price dip in some export categories

Prices for export cattle recorded a decline in some categories. The best export steers —British crossbreeds— maintained last week’s prices of Ar$5,000 to Ar$5,100 per kilo carcass weight, while Zebu-cross animals dropped Ar$100 at the high end, trading between Ar$4,900 and Ar$5,000 per kilo.

Paraguay

First-quarter beef exports went up 31%

Expectations of reduced production and lower beef exports from Paraguay this year were not borne out in the first quarter. According to Senacsa data, Paraguay placed 90,615 metric tons of beef on the international market through March, a robust 31% increase over the same period in 2024. The average export price rose 17% year-on-year, to US$5,627/ton.

Paraguay - Markets

Heated market for finished cattle

Widespread rain in the Chaco region and delays in foot-and-mouth vaccination have noticeably curbed supply. “The packers are chasing after cattle,” an intermediary noted. This week, common steers were paid around US$3.90 per kilo carcass weight, while cows were at US$3.60. For larger-volume transactions, sales have already reached US$4.00 for steers, while feedlot operations get a premium of 3–5% above listed prices.

North America

Recession risk in the US due to tariffs rises to 60%, says JP Morgan

The tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump on trading partners will likely push the United States and the global economy into recession in 2025, according to JPMorgan's chief economist, Bruce Kasman. “The risk of a global economic recession this year rises to 60%, from 40%,” Kasman said in a note to clients, describing the tariffs as the largest tax increase on American households and businesses since 1968.

North America

US February beef down 5.5% year-ago

February exports of US pork were moderately lower than a year ago, despite continued success in Mexico and Central America, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF). February beef exports were also below last year after trending higher in January, while lamb muscle cut exports posted a year-over-year increase for the fifth consecutive month.

North America

Poultry meat trade could rise 25% by 2034, says USDA

According to projections by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), by 2034 the top global importers of chicken meat could purchase over 15 million tons, a volume nearly 25% higher than last year. Among the 24 countries or blocs listed by the USDA, only three are expected to import less than last year: China, Russia, and Ukraine.

North America

Mexico reports first human case of H5N1 bird flu

Mexico has detected its first human case of H5N1 avian influenza, also known as bird flu, the health ministry said on Friday according to Reuters. The infection was confirmed on Tuesday in a three-year-old girl living in the northern state of Durango, who remains hospitalized in serious condition.

North America - Markets

Fed cattle prices down US$/cwt 3-5

Not surprisingly, the cash market in the US was muddled this past week encapsuled with trade announcements and interruptions and interpretations of the new tariffs. Two hard days down in cattle futures cast a damper over any optimism one might have for the current market prices. In the north live cattle traded for US$/cwt 210-213 — mainly US$/cwt 3-5 weaker.

Europe

FAO meat price index rose 1% in March

The FAO meat price index averaged 118.0 points in March, up 1 point (0.9%) from the revised February value and 3.1 points (2.7%) above the level of a year ago.

The increase was mainly due to higher pork prices, especially driven by rising quotations in the European Union after Germany regained its foot-and-mouth disease-free status, prompting key trade partners like the United Kingdom to lift import bans. Increased demand helped stabilize the market, while the stronger euro against the US dollar supported the upward trend.