Recession risk in the US due to tariffs rises to 60%, says JP Morgan

The tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump on trading partners will likely push the United States and the global economy into recession in 2025, according to JPMorgan's chief economist, Bruce Kasman. “The risk of a global economic recession this year rises to 60%, from 40%,” Kasman said in a note to clients, describing the tariffs as the largest tax increase on American households and businesses since 1968.

According to Bloomberg News journalist Matthew Boesler, several Wall Street firms have also warned of a US recession. Other economists, including those at JPMorgan, said the impact could be substantial, although they are taking a wait-and-see approach before adjusting their forecasts.

“The effect of this tax hike is likely to be magnified by retaliation, a drop in US business sentiment, and supply chain disruptions,” Kasman wrote in the note titled There will be blood. The announcement shook global financial markets.

Speaking aboard Air Force One on Thursday afternoon, Trump said he was open to lowering tariffs if trading partners could offer something “phenomenal.” “We are not making immediate changes to our forecasts and want to see the initial implementation and negotiation process take shape,” Kasman added.