Quilty sees a price peak in 2027 driven by a shift in the global cycle

Australian analyst Simon Quilty warned that the global beef market is approaching “tipping points” that could drive a significant increase in prices into 2026 and, especially, 2027.

Quilty delivered a presentation on Thursday, April 16, at the WagyuEdge conference in Brisbane, organized by the Australian Wagyu Association.

According to a report by Beef Central, Quilty’s view is based on a key shift in the cattle cycle: the current environment of firm demand—led by the United States—is expected to give way to a supply-driven market. He argues that herd rebuilding in the United States, Australia, and Brazil will begin this year, reducing the availability of slaughter-ready cattle and pushing prices higher.

At the same time, he identifies signs of “tipping points” across several key markets. In North Asia (Japan and South Korea), herd liquidation is already tightening supply, which should translate into higher prices. In the United States, cattle inventories at multi-decade lows and strong protein demand—partly driven by changing consumption patterns—reinforce the bullish outlook.

While acknowledging short-term disruptions—such as trade restrictions in China and the effects of the Middle East conflict—Quilty considers their impact to be temporary against structurally strong fundamentals.

In this context, he expects cattle prices in Australia—including Angus and Wagyu—to resume an upward trend in 2026 and potentially peak in 2027, when tighter global supply becomes more evident.

In his view, the global cattle cycle is transitioning into a phase of scarcity, creating upward price opportunities, albeit under geopolitical uncertainty. “Opportunities are there—we just need the war in Iran to stop,” he concluded.