Cattle on Feed report indicates liquidation continues

The USDA’s long-delayed Cattle on Feed (COF) report, released after the government shutdown, confirms that U.S. herd liquidation is still underway. Placements fell 10% and marketings declined 8% from October 2024, leaving total cattle on feed 1.6% lower year-over-year.

The most important figure in the report was the number of heifers on feed. As of Oct. 1, feedlots held 4.355 million heifers, about 245,000 fewer than a year earlier, the lowest October total since 2018. While this could normally hint at early signs of herd rebuilding, analysts caution that the drop is largely driven by a sharp decline in imports of spayed heifers from Mexico (down from 381,283 last year to just 79,507).

Despite the decline, the share of heifers on feed remains high at 38.1%, nearly unchanged from July and still above the “neutral” 36–37% range. Analysts say this confirms the U.S. remains in a liquidation phase, and that meaningful expansion is still distant. As Terrain’s Don Close noted, “We’re still kicking the can down the road.”

The report also highlighted a rare shift in feeding capacity: Nebraska surpassed Texas (2.64 million head versus 2.63 million), driven mainly by fewer Mexican feeder cattle entering the U.S. Additionally, the number of steers on feed increased, a result of longer days on feed compensating for the overall decline in cattle inventories.

Source: Drovers.