Canada: production rises while imports remain firm in 2026

USDA-Ottawa projections for 2026 point to a recovery in beef production in Canada, in a context of higher slaughter following a partial rebuilding of the herd. The greater availability of animals would allow for a moderate increase in supply after several years of contraction.

At the same time, imports are expected to remain firm and even show a slight increase, reflecting that higher domestic production is not sufficient to meet demand. The United States will remain the main supplier, with the market still requiring significant external volumes. Though the annual increase is moderate, it would be the biggest volume so far in the century.

Another relevant point is that, despite higher production, exports are expected to remain firm, supported by strong integration with the US market and stable external demand.

The only South American country with relevant beef export volumes to Canada is Uruguay, although its share declined in 2025. Shipments fell from 16 thousand tons carcass weight equivalent in 2024 to 13.4 thousand tons last year, with its share dropping from 6.1% to 4.3% of Canada’s total imports.

In this way, 2026 will reflect a phase of higher production, but with imports still playing a key role in balancing the market.