Cattle slaughter projected to be the highest since 1978

Australia’s cattle herd is forecast at around 30.8 million head in 2026, down 1% year-on-year but still at historically high levels. According to MLA projections, supply will remain strong in the near term, supported by higher slaughter and production alongside solid export demand.

Slaughter is expected to rise 1.9% to 9.45 million head, the highest level since 1978, while beef production is forecast to reach a record 2.9 million tons cwt (+4%). Although average carcass weights are set to ease slightly, the higher throughput will more than offset this decline.

Beef exports are also projected to hit a new record at 2.3 million tons cwt, driven by tight global supply, particularly in the US. External demand continues to play a key role in absorbing Australia’s large production volumes.

Looking ahead, seasonal conditions remain a key variable. While northern regions are supporting supply, parts of the south continue to face dry conditions. MLA warns that sustained high turn-off could lead to tighter cattle availability from 2027 onward.