Chinese importers arrived at SIAL Paris with bids below the latest traded levels, while the South American industry faces higher cattle costs and growing uncertainty over the use of the 2027 quota. Some plants accepted the new prices, while others preferred to wait.

A new edition of SIAL concludes in Paris this Wednesday, following two intense days of negotiations concentrated on Monday and Tuesday, with large crowds filling the aisles and stands.

Rising cattle prices are one of the Brazilian industry’s main concerns. In the short term, cattle demand is also expected to increase as plants seek to produce as much beef as possible for entry into China under the 2027 quota.

European importers secured deals at lower Hilton prices than in recent weeks, although some processors resisted the downward pressure. Delays involving two vessels carrying significant volumes of beef and difficulties selling product in Europe reduced buying urgency during the trade show.

A European importer reported sales of Paraguayan 17-cut grainfed sets under the new Mercosur quota, both frozen and chilled, at US$ 10,000/t and US$ 10,350/t CFR, respectively.

Another issue drawing the attention of Argentine and Paraguayan operators was the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), scheduled to enter into force on January 1, 2027. One source said some feedlots had as much as 20% of their cattle without the required certification, preventing those animals from being slaughtered for the European market under the new requirements.

Negotiations during SIAL resulted in agreements with a limited number of plants, amid differences between Mercosur exporters’ asking prices and Israeli buyers’ bids.

The US manufacturing beef market remains under pressure, although operators expect reduced Brazilian supply during the first quarter of 2027. Uncertainty surrounding quotas and the political environment also drew attention during SIAL Paris.

Faced with difficulties closing new business with China, Brazilian exporters found commercial alternatives in Middle Eastern and North African markets during SIAL Paris.

Export prices to the Chilean market strengthened over the past week, although some importers warned that traded volumes remain limited. Export market sources reported sales of Paraguayan 20-cut sets at US$ 8,400–8,500/t CFR during SIAL Paris, while Brazilian prices were one step below, at around US$ 7,800–7,900/t CFR.

The average price of slaughter cattle in Mercosur countries increased for the third consecutive week, rising 6 cents to a new record of US$ 5.07/kg carcass weight.

Prices increased in Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, while Argentina recorded a slight decline.

Brazilian beef exports continue to run at below 10,000 tons per day. The Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) reported that 107,835 tons were shipped during the first 11 working days of October.

Brazil's meatpacking industry has submitted a proposal to the government to distribute the 2027 beef export quota to China among eligible companies, using a mechanism similar to the one applied to administer the European Union's Hilton quota, based on export history.

The extraordinary beef import quota introduced by the United States was an unforeseen factor that helped drive up finished male cattle prices in Brazil, according to Paulo Mustefaga, executive president of the Brazilian Meatpackers Association (Abrafrigo).

The seasonal decline in demand during the second half of the month has eased upward pressure on cattle prices since the beginning of this week.

Increased Argentine supply has begun to pressure beef prices in Europe, while China is showing caution ahead of Brazil’s return to the market in 2027, Sirsil commercial manager Marcelo Muttoni told WBR during SIAL Paris.

The Uruguayan Aberdeen Angus Breeders’ Society is participating again in SIAL Paris, aiming to promote its beef certification program and establish new business contacts.

Uruguayan chilled beef exports to China by road through Chilean ports on the Pacific Ocean began to resume in late August this year.

The Type Steer 2.0 value increased by US$ 6 in September, or 0.3%, to US$ 2,123 per head, INAC reported. This was the second consecutive record for the indicator, which estimates the average sales value of all products obtained from a 520-kg liveweight beef-breed steer or crossbred animal with a 54% dressing percentage.

The slaughter cattle market remains firm, with US$ 6.00/kg carcass weight becoming a common price for steer transactions.

Meatpacking activity accelerated in the week ended October 17, consolidating the recovery in processing levels following the return of several plants over the past two weeks.

A total of 16,178 sheep were slaughtered in the week ended October 17, up 63.3% week on week. This was the highest weekly total since the final week of February.

Exports of chilled and frozen beef remained at exceptionally high levels in September, totaling 71,881 tons product weight and US$ 492.7 million. By volume, September was the second-highest month of 2026, behind August, when shipments reached their highest monthly level since at least 2010.

Sales to China continued the recovery recorded in August, supported by the exhaustion of Brazil’s beef quota in that market and weaker Argentine shipments to the United States amid recent competition from Brazil.

As of October 19, Argentina had filled 91.1% (18,224.3 tons) of its traditional annual duty-free beef quota for the United States and 67.6% (13,524.8 tons) of the final tranche of the additional 2026 quota, according to US customs data.

Brazil’s withdrawal from the European Hilton quota market created new business opportunities for Argentina and Uruguay, although this did not translate into higher prices.

Rafael Mortarotti, a board member of the Argentine Feedlot Chamber and chairman of CREA Argentina’s Livestock Committee, warned that high replacement cattle costs and interest rates are putting feedlot profitability under pressure. He also said he does not expect cattle supply to increase next year amid greater female retention.

Export steer prices remained generally stable. Better-quality finished British-breed crossbred steers continued to trade at Ar$ 7,900–8,100 per kg carcass weight, while Zebu-cross steers were quoted at Ar$ 7,600–7,900.

Paraguayan beef attracted interest at SIAL Paris, although high prices are making it difficult to close deals, Frigorífico Los Lazos director Diego Chagra told WBR. Los Lazos was the only Paraguayan meatpacker with its own stand at the trade show.

Paraguay’s export cattle market is showing less buying pressure from meatpackers, while expectations of price adjustments are emerging.

Finished males and heifers remain at US$ 5.35 per kg carcass weight, while cows are quoted at US$ 5.15. Deals include premiums of 3% for grassfed cattle and 5% for cattle from feedlot systems.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its 2026 beef production forecast by 75 million pounds, or around 34,000 tons, to just over 24.8 billion pounds. It also revised its 2027 projection downward to the lowest volume since 2015.

One of the largest US cattle feeding companies notified employees that it will close feedlot facilities, providing the first concrete sign of capacity adjustments in response to reduced cattle availability, The Ag Center reported. The report did not identify the company or specify which feedlots will be affected.

Mexico’s National Service for Agrifood Health, Safety and Quality (Senasica) ruled out foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the calf with mouth lesions detected at the Agua Prieta quarantine station in Sonora.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, plans to launch its first cattle and hog futures contracts on December 7, subject to regulatory review, Reuters reported.

A group of 68 US lawmakers signed a letter calling for measures to protect domestic sheepmeat producers, more than twice the number that supported a similar initiative late last year, Farmers Weekly reported.

Last week cash prices broke the flat trend line of the past month and moved higher. Cattle owners will attempt to continue the trend line higher but will have little packer help, according to The AG Center report. Processors lost some ground on margins last week as input cost rose and box prices fell.

US beef import prices were mostly moderately lower, according to the USDA report. Trading activity was light.

Finished cattle prices in Europe remain firm, driven by historically low cattle supplies and expectations that the situation will not change over the medium term.

As expected, the decline in imported beef stocks held in cold storage in China accelerated from September. Brazil and Australia have already filled their quotas for this year, causing arrivals from both origins to contract sharply.

Likely reflecting both the reduced availability and higher cost of imported beef, wholesale beef prices in China have risen at a faster pace in recent weeks, reaching their highest levels since early 2024.

The Philippines has approved the veterinary health certificates agreed upon with Colombia for beef and pork exports, according to Colombia's Ministry of Agriculture.

China imported 143,000 tons of beef in September, down 31% from 208,000 tons in August and 54.6% from the same month in 2025, when imports reached 316,000 tons, according to preliminary GACC data.

China’s domestic beef production declined by 0.7% year on year in the first nine months of 2026, according to data released on Monday, October 19, by the National Bureau of Statistics. The contraction contrasted with growth in the production of the main competing meats: pork output increased by 3.2% and poultry by 9.3%.

MBRF’s CEO for Uruguay warned that high beef prices and tighter global supply will pose challenges next year. Speaking at SIAL Paris, he analyzed the opportunities opening up for Uruguay as a result of the restrictions affecting Brazil in Europe and China.