Initial negotiations have begun ahead of the return of kosher slaughter crews to South America, although a significant gap remains between asking prices from processors and Israeli importers.

The Chinese market remained virtually at a standstill following the National Day holiday period, which runs from October 1 to 7. Activity had already slowed the previous week, with cautious buyers and limited offers ahead of the holiday.

The Hilton rump & loin market has weakened in recent days, pressured by sluggish European demand and the euro’s depreciation against the dollar. The euro fell to 1.12 on Tuesday, close to a 17-month low, making dollar-denominated beef purchases more expensive and adding downward pressure on prices.

A regional trader described the US market as virtually unchanged at the beginning of October, following a September that confirmed its usual role as a transitional month.

The Middle East market is seeing sporadic activity, although high beef prices continue to limit business.

Chilean import activity is more fluid for purchases from Brazil, while business with Paraguay remains difficult.

Sunday’s presidential election in Brazil, in which opposition candidate Flávio Bolsonaro defeated President Lula by two percentage points (47% to 45%), prompted a sharp appreciation of the Brazilian real and, consequently, a strong increase in the average price of slaughter steers in Mercosur.

Brazilian beef exports fell sharply in September compared with the same month a year earlier and remained virtually unchanged month-on-month.

The United States ranked by a wide margin as the leading destination for Brazilian beef exports in September. Volume was the highest on record, narrowly surpassing the previous record set in April 2025.

Beef exports to the European Union remained high in September, despite the suspension of import eligibility for Brazilian beef that took effect on September 3.

Brazilian export industry sources told WBR that September 3 was the deadline for issuing health certificates, which occurs when the sale is invoiced, and that many of those shipments departed during September.

The US dollar fell more than 4% at the start of the week in Brazil, while São Paulo stocks surged. Markets are already pricing in an opposition victory in the October 25 runoff.

BTG Pactual estimates that Brazilian stocks could still gain between 11% and 20% in local currency if Flávio Bolsonaro wins the presidential runoff. In a more optimistic scenario, the upside could reach 45%, according to a report released by the bank on Monday.

The projection rests on a repricing of assets amid expectations of more market-friendly economic policies and, particularly, stronger measures to address the fiscal imbalance. Improved perceptions of public finances could reduce risk premiums and allow stocks to trade closer to their historical valuation multiples.

This scenario gained traction following the first-round result. Flávio Bolsonaro received 47% of the vote against Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s 45%, outperforming market expectations. The reaction was immediate: Brazilian stocks posted strong gains and the real strengthened against the dollar, while investors also responded favorably to the new composition of Congress.

The potential upside, however, depends on a prospective Flávio Bolsonaro administration providing concrete signals of fiscal discipline and an economic agenda supportive of investment. Beyond the election result, markets will therefore watch proposals for public finances and the makeup of the economic team. A reversal in electoral expectations could also quickly unwind some of the recent gains.

Source: Valor.

Brazil has already filled the 1.106-million-ton quota established under China’s safeguard for 2026, meaning further shipments entering the Asian market this year will face an additional 55% tariff. However, the potential increase in beef availability in Brazil is unlikely to translate into lower prices, according to Datagro Pecuária.

Brazil’s beef industry has challenged the possibility that the country could remain unable to export beef to the European Union for at least two years. Abiec maintains that Brazil has already implemented a protocol to meet European requirements and is calling for those efforts to be considered to accelerate the reopening.

Brazil’s cattle herd contracted for the second consecutive year in 2025, reflecting the high slaughter levels recorded in recent years, particularly among females.

The Center-West led the decline, while the Northeast was the only region to expand its herd.

Brazil is expected to record another increase in the number of grainfed cattle in 2026, despite sharply higher feeder cattle prices. Stable feed costs and rising finished cattle prices continue to support feedlot margins.

Brazil’s entry into a herd rebuilding phase would reduce cattle availability and support prices during 2027, while the US beef processing industry is beginning to move beyond the worst point in its margin cycle. Bank of America (BofA) outlined this scenario following meetings with JBS, MBRF and Minerva.

China authorized two additional Brazilian beef plants to export to the country: Supremo Carnes in Carlos Chagas, Minas Gerais, and Masterboi in Canhotinho, Pernambuco. With these additions, Brazil now has 69 establishments approved to supply beef to the Chinese market.

The Cepea/Esalq finished male cattle indicator reached a new nominal record last week in its historical series, which began in 1994. Tighter availability of finished cattle and firm demand continue to support prices in the Brazilian market.

The number of cattle registered under feedlot DICOSE numbers as of June 30 stood at 248,000 head, a significant increase of 26.5% from the same date a year earlier, according to data from the Ministry of Livestock, Agriculture and Fisheries (MGAP).

Higher cattle prices encouraged greater investment in winter forage crops, which have so far been unable to reach their full potential due to winter weather conditions. They will almost certainly begin generating greater dry matter production.

Uruguay exported 28,081 tons shipped weight of chilled and frozen beef in September, at an average value of US$ 8,308 per ton, according to Customs export application data. Volume increased 10.7% from August, although it was 11.1% below September 2025.

The United States regained its position as the leading destination for Uruguayan frozen boneless beef in September. Shipments reached 8,467 tons, up 39.5% from August, exceeding the 7,736 tons sent to China. China had ranked first in August.

Uruguay shipped 1,959 tons of chilled beef to the European Union in September, up 5.3% year-on-year. Volume fell 28.5% from August, a shipping month for quota 481.

Offal exports totaled 6,298 tons in September, up 3.9% from August. The average value increased 21.3% to US$ 2,296/t. China took 4,963 tons, accounting for 78.8% of the total, at US$ 1,625/t.

The dispute at the Port of Montevideo, which had lasted more than four months, ended with an agreement between Terminal Cuenca del Plata (TCP) and the union late Wednesday afternoon.

The meatpacking industry’s debt to the banking system reached US$ 557.6 million in August, according to data from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU). This is the highest level since at least 2019 and comfortably exceeds the previous peak of US$ 518.5 million recorded in June this year.

Livestock farms’ debt ended August at US$ 1,344.1 million. This was just US$ 6 million below July’s record of US$ 1,350.2 million, following a US$ 65 million increase that month. Debt rose 13% year-on-year. The overdue loan ratio fell to 1.34%, from 1.40% in July and 1.66% in August 2025.

A similar pattern emerged across the agricultural sector: debt totaled US$ 4,215.4 million, the second-highest figure in the series, just below July’s US$ 4,231 million. The year-on-year increase was 12.5%.

Downward pressure on cattle prices is clearly a thing of the past, with the upward trend that prevailed throughout much of the year resuming. Expectations that demand would begin increasing ahead of supply have been confirmed.

Cattle slaughter declined again, reaching its lowest level since April on both a monthly and weekly basis.

INAC reported that 27,524 cattle were processed in the week ending October 3, down 5% (1,445 head) from the previous one and 20% (7,025 head) year-on-year. This was the lowest total since the second week of April.

With the two main sheep processing plants inactive, sheep slaughter fell to its lowest level in six weeks.

INAC reported that 1,152 sheep were slaughtered in the week ending October 3, well below the approximately 11,000 head processed in each of the previous two weeks. Lambs totaled 994 head, accounting for 86% of the total.

The governments of Japan and Argentina reached an agreement on Wednesday, September 30, on the sanitary conditions for imports of beef and beef products from northern Argentina, Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries reported.

In a market announcement, Minerva Foods highlighted Japan’s announcement of an agreement with Argentine authorities on the sanitary conditions for importing matured boneless beef and derived products from Argentina’s northern region.

Five days into the fourth and final tranche of the additional beef quota granted by the United States to Argentina for 2026, almost 7,520 tons had entered, equivalent to 37.6% of the quarterly allocation.

Export steer prices remained stable. British-breed crossbred steers, with better beef quality, are quoted at Ar$ 7,900–8,100 per kg carcass weight, while Zebu-cross steers are at Ar$ 7,600–7,900.

Cattle slaughter at Paraguayan export plants contracted again in September. It was the second consecutive month of declines, both month-on-month and year-on-year. The year-to-date total is the lowest since 2019.

According to Senacsa data, Paraguay exported 23,731 tons of beef in September at a record average FOB value of US$ 7,488/t, exceeding the previous high recorded in August.

Los Lazos completed its first shipment of Paraguayan beef to Chile after recently obtaining approval to export to that market.

Brazilian group Xingu Foods has officially begun operations at Frigorífico Concepción’s plant, marking a new stage in the service agreement reached between the two companies several months ago. Slaughter began on Thursday, October 1, at an initial rate of around 200 head per day.

US cattle slaughter returned to more normal levels last week following the sharp decline in the previous week, while fed cattle prices were mostly steady for a third consecutive week. Feedlots, facing deeply negative margins, will attempt to push cash cattle prices higher.

Limited availability from Australia and New Zealand continued to support the US imported beef market despite pressure from weaker domestic values. South American trade remained active.

The Irish Farmers’ Association (IFA) has called on the European Commission to suspend imports of Argentine beef following the publication of a study that detected antimicrobial residues and discrepancies in treatment records at the country’s feedlots. The request seeks to extend to Argentina the restrictions imposed on Brazil since September 3 under European requirements governing antimicrobial use in livestock production.

As in recent quarters, the volume entering the European Union under quota 481 far exceeded the 2,500-ton allowance. All shipments will therefore be subject to a proportion of the full levy, depending on the final volume arriving in time.

Lower international poultry and pig meat prices drove the monthly decline in the FAO meat price index, while beef and sheep meat prices remained broadly stable. Beef price trends differed between Australia and Brazil.

Australian beef exports fell year-on-year for the third consecutive month in September, reinforcing a downward trend that ended 42 consecutive months of growth.

DAFF reported that Australia exported 132,146 tons of beef in September, around 4,000 tons more than in August but almost 7,000 tons below the same month last year.

Australian cattle prices found some support following the sharp declines recorded since early August. Lower saleyard supplies allowed the national young cattle indicator to recover, although MLA said signals remained mixed across regions and categories.

Tighter beef availability expected through 2026 and 2027, combined with resilient US demand despite high retail prices, is supporting a positive outlook for New Zealand exports. The US market was a major focus at New Zealand’s annual Red Meat Sector Conference.

China’s average wholesale beef price rose 1.1% on September 30 to RMB 73.26 per kg (US$ 10.92 at the current exchange rate), according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA). The price increased by a cumulative 5.4% during September.