The US cattle industry is beginning to move into a new phase of the cattle cycle after several years of liquidation, but meaningful herd rebuilding has yet to begin. Tight supplies could therefore persist for several more years, keeping cattle prices supported.
The US cattle industry is starting to transition toward a new phase of the cycle following several years of herd liquidation, although rebuilding is expected to be gradual. CattleFax market research director Patrick Linnell projected the cow herd could recover to around 30 million head by 2030, provided weather and economic conditions allow. A 2026 producer survey cited by Drovers showed that 55% of respondents intend to increase their cow numbers over the next five years.
However, the heifer retention needed to trigger an effective expansion has yet to materialize. Oklahoma State University’s Derrell Peel said the industry is stabilizing, but “rebuilding has not really started.” Without significant heifer retention soon, the cattle herd may fail to expand in 2027 and could show only limited growth even in 2028.
This dynamic could prolong the current environment of tight supplies and elevated cattle prices. Peel said the peak of the current price cycle should occur only after sufficiently strong heifer retention begins. Since that process is still not evident, he does not expect the price peak in 2026 and considers it unlikely in 2027 as well.
The pace of rebuilding will also be constrained by drought conditions in some regions, high land costs and limited land availability, as well as labor challenges. At the same time, specialists noted that several years of liquidation have left a relatively selected genetic base, as less productive cows tended to be culled first. Breeding and selection decisions made during the next expansion could influence US cattle productivity for at least the next 15 years.
Source: BeefPoin Drovers
