The same pattern that caused Brazilian beef sales to China to collapse in the second half of 2026 could recur next year, prompting debate within the industry over whether to allocate the quota among companies.
Brazil’s 2027 quota of 1.128 million tons, just 22,000 tons more than in 2026, could be filled by late March or April if meatpackers begin shipping in November so that cargoes arrive in China from January and count toward the new quota period.
The strategy is intended to restore sales after the sharp decline in the second half of 2026. But concentrating shipments in the opening months could use up the available volume and leave the industry facing an additional 55% tariff outside the quota for most of the year.
According to Abiec president Roberto Perosa, Brazil could have exported around 2 million tons to China in 2026 without the restrictions. Chinese buyers purchased around 1.7 million tons in 2025.
The industry is therefore beginning to discuss a mechanism for allocating the quota among companies to avoid another rush that would hurt the sector as a whole. An allocation mechanism was considered in 2026, but no consensus was reached.
