The retention of females and reduced cattle availability will make 2027 the second consecutive year of declining production, although exports are expected to continue growing on strong global demand.
Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) forecast beef production to fall by 3.6% in 2027 to 11.4 million tons, compared with a projected 11.84 million tons in 2026 and 11.9 million tons in 2025.
Conab attributed the decline to increasing retention of females as part of the cattle cycle. “For 2027, a more noticeable reduction in cattle availability is expected as female retention advances,” it said. According to Conab, the shift in the cycle is occurring more gradually than anticipated: slaughter in the first half of 2026 was still above the previous year’s level, supported by the availability of females, higher average carcass weights and growing use of feedlots.
On the export side, Conab forecasts a 2.2% increase in shipments in 2027 to 4.8 million tons, after 4.7 million tons in 2026. Strong performance in the first half was driven by Chinese demand, high international prices and access to new markets, although shipments will slow in the second half as China’s low-tariff quota is exhausted. In the domestic market, consumption remains “moderate and concentrated in lower-value cuts.” Beef is losing competitiveness against poultry and pork, limiting the extent to which higher cattle prices can be passed on to consumers.
Source: Forbes Brasil
