Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) forecast Australian beef production to exceed 3 million tons carcass weight for the first time in 2026, driven by slaughter of 9.6 million head, an average carcass weight of 313 kilograms and historically high feedlot turn-off.
Beef exports are forecast to reach a record 2.4 million tons this year, supported by strong global demand and tight supplies in several major producing countries, particularly the United States.
Despite the high turn-off, the cattle herd has proved more resilient than expected and is forecast at 30.8 million head. MLA attributed this to improved seasonal conditions, stronger reproductive performance and faster movement of cattle through production systems. The herd is projected to gradually decline to 30.1 million head in 2027 and 29.7 million in 2028.
Live cattle exports fell by 25% year-on-year in the first seven months, affected by high cattle prices, exchange rates, freight costs and competition. Indonesia accounted for 79% of shipments.
Source: MLA.
