Trade disruptions are accelerating the redistribution of global beef flows, with Brazil and Australia the countries most affected by China’s quota system, against a backdrop of contracting global supply.
Global beef production will fall 2% year-on-year in 2026, according to Rabobank’s third-quarter report, with a decline of between 2% and 3% estimated for the second half of the year. Trade disruptions are reshaping global flows: Australian exports to China have fallen sharply since June after the quota was exhausted, while Brazilian volumes are expected to decline in August as the same limit approaches. Cattle prices remain high amid tight supply.
The report’s feature article examines the impact of trade disruptions on the Brazilian cattle market. China has been the main driver of Brazil’s export growth in recent years, absorbing about 48% of total export volume in 2025. The exhaustion of the import quota and a potential suspension of access to the European market would change the outlook: lower cattle prices and increased retention of animals could reduce available supply, providing some balance against the likely decline in export volumes.
