The beef supply deficit in the US market is widening, and production will continue to decline in the second half of this year and in 2027, according to analyst Derrell Peel in an article published by Beef Magazine.
Total beef production is down 5.5 percent year over year through the first half of 2026. Average fed beef production is currently at the lowest level since 2017, and average non-fed (cull cow and bull) beef production is now at the lowest level since 2006. Average monthly commercial beef production is at the lowest level since late 2016.
Peel says that total beef production is projected to be down 4.5 – 5.0 percent in 2026 compared to last year and is expected to decrease again in 2027 to the lowest beef production since 2015.
