In his weekly analysis for Pig333, Spanish pork trader Guillem Burset warned that the European pork market is going through one of its worst crises in decades. He said June was a very disappointing month for Spain, with hog prices remaining below production costs and with no room for further increases.
Burset attributes the situation to a combination of factors: an oversupply of pork in Europe, overproduction in China—which has sharply reduced its import needs—difficulties exporting to Asia, ongoing African swine fever outbreaks, and the lack of profitability in the pork processing industry. He believes a reduction in the European pig herd is inevitable to rebalance the market, although he warns that the adjustment will take time.
The analyst concludes that the crisis is "deep, long-lasting, and probably structural," and expects prices to remain under pressure for the rest of the year.
The sharp decline in European pork prices stands in stark contrast to developments in the beef market. The EU cattle herd has been shrinking, driving average bullock prices steadily higher to a record €7.30/kg in November 2025. At the end of 2023, the average EU bullock price was just over twice the German pig price, representing a premium of €2.60/kg. That gap widened to a record €5.77/kg in November last year. Despite the recent correction in beef prices, the premium still stands at around €5.00/kg, with the average EU bullock price more than four times higher than the German pig price.
