Brazilian beef prices remained firm in May, supported by the acceleration of exports to China ahead of the exhaustion of the country's preferential-tariff quota and by stronger seasonal demand linked to the FIFA World Cup.
According to IBGE data, all major beef cuts posted price increases, led by Tenderloin (4.4%), Rump cap (3.9%), and Brisket (3%). So far in 2026, Brisket prices have risen 13.6%, Rump cap 9.3%, and Striploin 11.8%.
According to Safras & Mercado, Brazil is likely to fill around 98% of its China quota by the end of June, opening a period of greater beef availability for the domestic market and providing temporary price relief. However, the consultancy expects renewed upward pressure during the second half of the year, driven by the return of Chinese demand, the potential impact of El Niño on cattle production, and continued strong US import demand.
Fernando Iglesias, an analyst at Safras & Mercado, said the increase in beef prices is mainly the result of tighter supplies rather than stronger domestic consumption, which remains constrained by households' weaker purchasing power. Along the same lines, Itaú BBA highlighted that exports continue to be the main pillar supporting the market: from January through May, shipments to China increased 24% year-on-year and accounted for 51% of Brazil's total beef exports.
Source: SpaceMoney
