Brazilian beef exports to the European Union remain active, although the market is increasingly concerned about the outlook after September 3, when the EU's new sanitary requirements for Brazilian beef come into force (see Brazil section).
A European importer told World Beef Report (WBR) that the industry in Brazil is already talking about an adaptation process that could take two to three years. Among the main challenges, he cited the inability to guarantee that animals have never been treated with antibiotics throughout their lifetime and the lack of full traceability from weaning onward. “There is no short-term solution to this problem,” the source said.
Uncertainty also remains over the deadline for shipments to enter the EU. While some operators believe that consignments accompanied by certificates issued through September 2 will still be accepted, others, particularly in the Netherlands, maintain that the restriction will apply from September 3 onward, with no common interpretation yet among EU member states.
Without Brazil, the frozen beef GATT quota is expected to become much more difficult to fill. “Imports will have to be sourced more aggressively from Argentina, Uruguay, Australia, and New Zealand,” the importer said, noting that many European buyers prefer Brazilian round cuts because of their lower intramuscular fat content.
Meanwhile, several importers are bringing purchases forward and using part of their quotas in advance. Current price references for Brazilian beef include eye round at US$ 7,500-7,600/t CFR, topside at US$ 8,600-8,700/t CFR, flat at US$ 7,500/t CFR, knuckle at US$ 7,200-7,300/t CFR, and frozen or chilled tenderloins at US$ 19,000-20,000/t CFR. For chilled cuts, striploins are trading at around US$ 10,100/t CFR and rib eyes at approximately US$ 10,200/t CFR.
According to the source, there is certainty only for July shipments. August programs and those for subsequent months remain surrounded by uncertainty and, even if beef is available, all indications are that the GATT quotas will be difficult to fill under normal conditions should Brazil lose access to the European market.
