Speculation grows over Brazil’s volume into the U.S.

Brazil is once again the main question mark regarding its U.S. supply. One operator admitted it is “very difficult” to know in real time what Brazil is closing, because the deals reported by exporters often do not match the volumes actually shipped. “You only find out afterward, when you see the statistics,” he said, noting that Brazil’s November shipments again neared 300 thousand tons. The effect of the tariff reduction will only be visible in December and January data, key months to gauge the supply level the U.S. will face in 2026.