Consulting firm StoneX projects steady prices for the arroba of finished cattle in the last quarter of the year, driven by tighter cattle supply and a recovery in domestic demand. The report highlights that the rebound of the chicken market following the avian influenza crisis could also lift beef prices.
The firm also notes growing competitiveness from chicken meat, which could shift dynamics among proteins. After the sharp price drop seen in early 2025 due to the avian flu crisis, the recovery in exports has strengthened the market. “As Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of this protein, the recovery of chicken tends to put upward pressure on beef prices in the final months of 2025,” said StoneX analyst Larissa Barbosa Alvarez.
Externally, China’s share of Brazilian beef exports rose from 52% to 60% following U.S. tariff measures, while Mexico, Russia, and Indonesia are also growing markets.
StoneX cautions, however, that the exchange rate will be key to maintaining margins and anticipates that 2026 will mark the start of herd rebuilding with a focus on reproductive efficiency.
