Conditions in China’s beef import market have remained unchanged over the past week, with importers operating cautiously and pushing purchase prices downward —arguing increased Brazilian supply— while exporters are striving to keep their selling prices stable and avoid further cuts.

Since the end of last week, there has been a renewed intention from U.S. importers, with greater buying interest. The fact that the new tariff for Brazil has come into effect, and that there were no “last-minute” changes, seems to be clearing uncertainty, and operators are beginning to accept that these will be the conditions under which the market will operate, at least for the coming weeks.

The chilled beef market in Europe remains firm, with price references moderately higher than last week. The main driver continues to be the shortage of supply, both in the EU domestic market and in Argentina—the main external source for chilled beef purchases—and Uruguay.

Trading with the Chilean market remained at firm price levels, with locally produced beef reaching the market at high prices and import needs for the mid-September national holidays mostly completed, according to various sources consulted by WBR.

Trade from Paraguay to Taiwan is at a standstill.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is proving a good option for the limited sheepmeat availability in the region at this time. In recent days, a trader said they had made deals for mutton carcasses at US$/t 4,700 and lamb carcasses of 21–22 kg at US$/t 5,700.

Slaughter cattle prices rose across the board in the four Mercosur countries. The WBR Mercosur Steer Index gained 15 cents during the week to US$ 4.01 per kilo carcass weight, surpassing the US$ 4 mark for the first time in six weeks.

Brazil exported 276.9 thousand tons of beef in July at an average value of US$/t 5,551, according to data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex). Thus, the world’s two largest beef exporters shipped record volumes last month, as Australia had already done so with 150,435 tons, as reported in WBR issue No. 1645.

China was directly responsible for Brazil’s record total beef exports in July. The country shipped 158,374 tons (product weight) to the Asian market, setting a new record for this destination (although close to the previous high set in October 2024) and 24 thousand tons more than the already high figure from June.

The strong demand for beef from European Union countries is evident not only in the high prices paid for slaughter cattle in the region (averaging US$ 8.30–8.40 per kilo carcass weight) but also in the growing import volumes at rising prices.

In the first six business days of August, Brazil exported 80,470 tons shipment weight of beef at a strong daily pace of 13,412 tons, according to information from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex). This begins to confirm expectations for August to maintain the high export volumes seen in July.

July’s record beef export volume will be challenged this August, when a large portion of the record beef production from export plants last month is shipped.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA), as of Friday, cattle slaughter at federally inspected plants (SIF), which are authorized to export, totaled 2.74 million head.

With beef production at SIF plants estimated at 740–745 thousand tons carcass weight, domestic consumption of around 555 thousand tons per month, and production at municipally and state-inspected plants of about 280 thousand tons, total output exceeded 1 million tons last month, well above domestic consumption, leaving a substantial exportable surplus estimated at 410–430 thousand tons carcass weight equivalent (considering a portion that is industrialized). Converted to shipment weight, this equals about 290–300 thousand tons.

Minerva reported a solid financial performance in the second quarter of 2025, with a strong recovery in its main operating and financial indicators. Net profit reached R$ 458.3 million (about US$ 84 million), up 380.2% from the same period last year.

The tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazilian products exported to the country are expected to have a positive impact on Minerva’s revenue over the next two quarters after the company significantly increased its inventories in the US in response to rising beef prices there.

Banco do Brasil believes that meatpacking companies listed on B3 (the Brazilian stock exchange) can redirect part of their exports from the United States to other countries. This is because the cost of Brazilian slaughter cattle in US dollars remains competitive compared to major global producers (Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Paraguay, the US, the EU, and Australia).

Negotiations to open the Japanese market to Brazilian beef are currently focused on approving suppliers from southern Brazil, angering companies from other regions of the country also interested in reaching consumers in this highly profitable market, according to Forbes Brasil.

The slaughter cattle market has changed direction with the start of the month. There was a notable increase in supply in the domestic market, which allowed for a steady flow of product. This was complemented by supply being scarcer than in previous weeks.

Minerva’s results in Uruguay showed a significant increase in gross revenue, driven by higher slaughter volumes. The company reported gross revenue of R$ 1.569 billion in April–June, a 73% increase compared to the same period last year.

Uruguay’s beef imports totaled 24,518 tons in the January–July period, up 16% compared to the same period last year. According to data published by INAC, the average value of imported beef was US$/t 5,314, a 17% year-on-year increase. Forequarter compensated cuts accounted for 66% of the volume, followed by hindquarter cuts (27%) and ground beef (6%).

This is the last full working week for the 481 quota, of grainfed cattle, so several plants that were focused on this activity now need to purchase grassfed cattle, which is increasing demand. This meets a very limited and well-positioned supply, as the alternation of sunny, mild days and rainfall is bringing a significant improvement in forage quality and volume.

Cattle slaughter ended a six-week streak in which the activity pace exceeded that of the same period last year. INAC reported that in the week ending August 9, 48,119 head entered plants, a little over 1,000 head more than in the previous week, but almost 1,800 head fewer than in the same week last year.

If cattle supply is scarce, sheep supply is even more so. Slaughterhouses working with the species are struggling to find available lots, which are truly very limited. One plant decided to buy unfinished animals to finish them on pasture and secure a minimum supply base for the coming weeks.

In July 2025, 1.244 million head of cattle were slaughtered, almost 9.8% more than the previous month and the highest figure since October 2024, according to information from the National Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries. Compared to the same month in 2024, slaughter was 1.4% lower.

In the first seven months of 2025, cattle slaughter reached 7.855 million head. This figure is just 0.4% higher than in the same period of 2024. However, the breakdown by category shows variations: this year, steer slaughter increased 12% year-on-year, young steers 1%, and heifers 6%, while cow slaughter fell 11% (as did bull slaughter, down 9%, although its relative share is much smaller).

A technical mission from Chile’s Agricultural and Livestock Service (SAG) will arrive in Argentina in the first week of September to “verify on the ground the epidemiological conditions and measures applied at sanitary barriers, with the goal of restoring imports from Patagonia to Chile as soon as possible,” said Chile’s SAG.

Prices for export cattle rose again following the 1.75% cut in export taxes on beef and the weakness of the exchange rate. The best-quality beef-type steers, crossbred with British breeds, are now trading at around Ar$ 5,600 to 5,800 per kilo carcass weight, while fat cattle with indicus cross are ranging between Ar$ 5,300 and 5,500 per kilo.

Slaughter cattle prices continue to strengthen, although the weekly growth rate has moderated. Most transactions for steers and heifers for slaughter are taking place at US$ 4.20 per kilo carcass weight, with some deals reaching US$ 4.25–4.30. For fat cows, the most common price is US$ 3.90 per kilo.

U.S. beef import needs are increasing due to reduced domestic production. However, in the second half of this year the upward trajectory will be interrupted as a direct consequence of the impact of higher tariffs on the product.

US beef export volume was the lowest in five years, due in part to China’s failure to renew registrations for the vast majority of U.S. plants, said the United States Meat Export Federation (Usmef).

Beef and beef subproduct exports totaled 93,928 mt in June, down 15% from a year ago and the lowest since June 2020. Export value was $769 million, down 18% and the lowest in 17 months. For January through June, beef exports were 6.5% below last year’s pace at 602,221 mt, while value fell 6% to $4.92 billion.

President Donald Trump extended a pause of higher tariffs on Chinese goods for another 90 days into early November, stabilizing trade ties between the world’s two largest economies.

Beyond Meat, one of the leading producers of plant-based —and heavily processed— meat substitutes, had another difficult quarter (April–June 2025), with revenues down 19.6% year-on-year to just US$ 75 million, below analysts' expectations (around US$ 82–83 million).

From McDonald's and Coca-Cola to Amazon and Apple, US-based multinationals are facing calls for a boycott in India as business executives and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's supporters stoke anti-American sentiment to protest against US tariffs, Reuter said.

“Rebalancing cattle supplies between breeders, feeders, processors and retailers is not a single dimensional task. It is a multi-point process of continual pricing and testing against the new price. For the processors, simply cutting the slaughter is not the complete answer because small slaughter volumes are not an efficient use of the plant.

Compared to the last market test, beef import prices were sharply higher in the USA. Trading was moderate to active. Moderate to good demand continued to support prices. Concerns about the new tariff rates continued to limit out-front trading.

The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 127.3 points in July, 1.5 points (1.2%) higher than in June, 7.3 points (6.0%) above July 2024, reaching a new all-time high.

New data from the July 2025 Beef Producers Intensions Survey (BPIS) showed 46% of Australian cattle producers sold fewer animals than planned, highlighting ongoing challenges facing the livestock industry, MLA said.

Driven by a sharp increase in shipments from Brazil, growth in Australian exports, and projections pointing to sustained exports from Argentina, it is estimated that in July around 280–285 thousand tons of beef from all origins sailed for China.

Today, August 6, the Chinese government announced that it will extend until November 26 the decision on the safeguard measure it will apply to limit beef imports. Initially, the date for this decision was August. In turn, industry sources in China stated that the government’s decision would involve assigning a quota to each supplying country, considering the volumes imported from each in 2024.

An outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) has been reported in China, specifically in Sichuan province, on a domestic pig farm near the border with Vietnam. The outbreak was detected on July 29, 2025, and reported to the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) on August 6, 2025. The exact location is Anyue County, within the city of Ziyang, according to Eurocarne.