The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its 2026 beef production forecast by 75 million pounds, or around 34,000 tons, to just over 24.8 billion pounds. It also revised its 2027 projection downward to the lowest volume since 2015.
The adjustment reflects lower steer and heifer slaughter and lighter carcass weights, which more than offset a slightly higher cow slaughter forecast compared with the previous report.
Nevertheless, total cow slaughter remains very low year on year. USDA said the average weekly slaughter pace from January through September was the lowest since 1950, with the sole exception of 2005. Within that total, dairy cow slaughter increased from 2025, while beef cow slaughter declined sharply.
The steep year-on-year reduction in beef cow slaughter reflects the beginning of a retention phase following several years of herd liquidation. However, herd rebuilding remains at an early stage, as both beef cow inventories and calf production continued to decline in 2026.
The 2027 forecast was reduced by a further 160 million pounds, or around 73,000 tons, due to lighter weights and lower feedlot placements. Tighter supplies supported market sentiment, while USDA projected finished steer prices to average US$ 225/cwt in the fourth quarter and US$ 235/cwt in early 2027.
Pork production forecasts were also lowered by 150 million pounds for 2026 and 245 million pounds for 2027. However, weak wholesale pork values prompted USDA to reduce its price forecast for the sector.
