South Korean beef imports are forecast to increase 3% in 2027 to 620,000 tons carcass weight equivalent, due to lower domestic production and an expected recovery in consumption, according to the USDA office in Seoul.
Domestic production is forecast to decline 3% to 455,000 tons, reflecting the contraction of the cattle herd and lower availability of finished cattle. Slaughter is expected to fall 4% to 975,000 head, while consumption is projected to grow 1%, supported by the anticipated economic recovery.
For 2026, the USDA estimates imports at 600,000 tons, 2% more than the previous year. Purchases increased 10% year-over-year in the first half, driven by high Hanwoo beef prices and the elimination of tariffs on U.S. beef. Australia accounted for 54% of import volume and the U.S. for 41%.
However, the pace of imports is expected to slow in the second half of the year. Australia reached the safeguard trigger volume in late July—the earliest date on record—and its shipments will therefore face a 24% tariff for the remainder of 2026.
