Japan’s beef production is forecast to fall 3% in 2027 to 475,000 tons carcass weight equivalent due to a shrinking herd and the continued decline in the number of breeding farms, according to the USDA office in Tokyo.
Slaughter is projected to decrease from 1.065 million to 1.035 million head, while beginning inventories are expected to fall 1.6% to 3.70 million head. Lower calf production will reduce the availability of Wagyu, Holstein, and crossbred cattle for slaughter.
Consumption is forecast to remain virtually stable, edging down to 1.17 million tons. Inflation and the weak yen are prompting consumers to shift from beef to pork and chicken. Against this backdrop, imports are projected to decline slightly to 705,000 tons, after rising to 710,000 tons in 2026. Buyers are expected to continue prioritizing lower-priced frozen beef.
Source: USDA Tokyo.
