The reversal of Brazil’s cattle cycle will become more evident in 2027, with lower slaughter and beef production, according to projections from the USDA office in Brasilia. The retention of breeding females and other cattle categories will reduce supplies and push calf prices higher.
Slaughter is forecast to fall 2.6% year-over-year to 48.2 million head, while beef production is expected to decline 2%, or 200,000 tons, to 12 million tons carcass weight equivalent. Conversely, the calf crop is forecast to grow 3.6% to 50 million head, providing an initial sign of herd rebuilding.
Exports are projected to decline 1%, or 50,000 tons, to 4.10 million tons carcass weight equivalent, although Brazil will remain the world’s largest beef exporter. Foreign sales would absorb 34% of production.
In addition to tighter cattle supplies, the USDA considered trade restrictions in key markets: China’s quota, the European Union’s suspension of Brazilian imports and the expiration of the temporary expansion of the U.S. quota for lean beef.
Lower beef availability and the priority given to exports are also expected to reduce domestic consumption by 2% to 7.94 million tons, a year-over-year decline of 140,000 tons. High household indebtedness and weaker purchasing power would reinforce this trend.
